Still Plodding Along

update

I am still actively participating in the markets. I took pretty much the whole of July and August off because I was either on holiday, didn't have any trade signals or couldn't locate my interest in the markets. And I got back to trading "proper" in September.

positions

1. Long Copper: Bought in November 2016 on a monthly bullish domino candle, "Trump/reflation trade" or whatever people are calling now. I'm up about 1R, it's pulling back but I'm not particularly bothered. My stop is more or less at breakeven, I haven't got any signals to sell and personally I think Trump will manage to do something vaguely pro-business, so just going to let it run.

2. Long GBPNZD: Bought this first week of September, it's sitting around +1R. Stop's at breakeven, it's going sideways, again just letting it run. I think the GBP is undervalued, Carney is a moron and the Kiwi economy is boring. I'm probably wrong on all fronts but I'm willing to live with that.

3. Long GBPJPY: Bought this second week of September it's sitting around BE. Stop's at 50%, it's going sideways, again just letting it run. Even if the UK is weak I think the BoE will raise rates slowly ( IMO 80% chance of 0.25% hike and 20% chance of 0.5% hike in November) and the BoJ is committed to buying Japanese bonds for well, ever. If I'm right I'll clean up, If I'm wrong, that's what the stops there for.

potential positions

End of the month and I've got some monthly candles to choose from. The bolded FX  is the direction I would be going.

• AUDCHF: Price action is stuck in a monthly range, so no.
• AUDJPY: Price action quite "step-py" which will likely make reaching PT and holding to PT difficult, so no thanks.
• CADCHF: Price action is stuck in a 3-year tight range, no.
• EURGBP: Not a huge amount of profit potential and I am too emotionally involved in this pair. 
• NZDCAD: The range makes PT pathetic.

• GBPJPY: Monthly bullish domino candle adds conviction to my current long GBPJPY trade, so might, on this rare occasion average down on a PB. 
• USDCAD: I like this one. The USD is oversold, Trump sentiment is so low, even him farting would surprise on the upside. The signals good and there is an easy 1:1.5 there. I'll have a go on this.

• EURCHF: I'm going to short this. 1. The signals good on the MN and W1 charts, 2. there's an easy 1:1.5 and 3. What happened in Catalonia today is fucking disgusting.

April 2015 Summary: -0.2

Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal:		0.00		Credit Facility:				0.00
Closed Trade P/L:		-2.60		Floating P/L:				0.00	Margin:			0.00
Balance:		1 242.62		Equity:				1 242.62	Free Margin:			1 242.62
Details:
Gross Profit:		49.84		Gross Loss:				52.44	Total Net Profit:			-2.60
Profit Factor:		0.95		Expected Payoff:				-0.26
Absolute Drawdown:		34.06		Maximal Drawdown:				46.14 (3.67%)	Relative Drawdown:			3.67% (46.14)
Total Trades:		10		Short Positions (won %):				10 (40.00%)	Long Positions (won %):			0 (0.00%)
Profit Trades (% of total):								4 (40.00%)	Loss trades (% of total):			6 (60.00%)
Largest		profit trade:						20.10	loss trade:			-11.56
Average		profit trade:						12.46	loss trade:			-8.74
Maximum		consecutive wins ($):						2 (30.86)	consecutive losses ($):			5 (-46.14)
Maximal		consecutive profit (count):						30.86 (2)	consecutive loss (count):			-46.14 (5)
Average		consecutive wins:						1	consecutive losses:			3

intro: a funny month as had much on outside of trading. This meant adapting my method mid-month so that I didn't have to be around for trade entries or manage "in-trade" risk.

graph: the major draw down (trades 1-6) came from my first week with the new method, I was still "finding my way" with it. The second week using the new method improved and made up most of my losses.

numbers: Going to call this a break even month (-0.2). which is definitely an improvement on last March (-0.7). Happy to see my hit rate is staying around 40%. My largest win was 42% more profitable than my largest loss,  while my average win was 29% more profitable than my largest loss, again better than March but still room for improvement in both these areas as I would need a large 61% wine rate to turn my efforts profitable. 

summary: My win rate has been between 35-42% for the last four months which means that to turn profitable I need to get my average win 58-65% greater than my average loss. The only two ways I can do that is by letting my winners run, this I'm not sure is possible as I am already trading price into the next level of S/D. Or by reducing risk. The following are what I wish to work on in May...

1. ensuring that you are always risking 1% of account per trade. actually went under size this month! so a +2R gain only registered a 1% gain in P/L.

2.  choosing low risk, high reward entries. started poorly this month but got better 

3.  reducing risk (trail and time stops) in trade. harder to do this month as using a "set and forgot" method.

lessons:

1. accommodate the brokers spread and nearby price action when setting targets.

2. Find potential demand levels in uptrend price action, find potential supply levels in downtrend price action.

3. you got to swing the bat, to hit the ball. 

4. using quality S/D (pivot high/lo) on higher time frames means higher probabilities as levels are clearer for all to see so therefore less exploritory breakouts that can take out stops. 

5. ask yourself if your level is truly supply/demand or just a pivot hi/lo. 

6. hard drops/rallies from a level and price spending very little time at the level are positive factors.

7. don't make trading/plan decisions when tired!

March 2015 Summary: R-0.4

Deposit/Withdrawal:		0.00		Credit Facility:				0.00
Closed Trade P/L:		-8.64		Floating P/L:				0.00	Margin:			0.00
Balance:		1 245.22		Equity:				1 245.22	Free Margin:			1 245.22
Details:
Gross Profit:		56.11		Gross Loss:				64.75	Total Net Profit:			-8.64
Profit Factor:		0.87		Expected Payoff:				-0.36
Absolute Drawdown:		19.54		Maximal Drawdown:				24.78 (1.97%)	Relative Drawdown:			1.97% (24.78)
Total Trades:		24		Short Positions (won %):				22 (45.45%)	Long Positions (won %):			2 (0.00%)
Profit Trades (% of total):								10 (41.67%)	Loss trades (% of total):			14 (58.33%)
Largest		profit trade:						15.08	loss trade:			-12.48
Average		profit trade:						5.61	loss trade:			-4.63
Maximum		consecutive wins ($):						3 (22.20)	consecutive losses ($):			3 (-19.98)
Maximal		consecutive profit (count):						22.20 (3)	consecutive loss (count):			-19.98 (3)
Average		consecutive wins:						1	consecutive losses:			2

intro: from the PL chart it seems there was very little consistency this month, a sea of chop! And this I believe is the truth.

numbers: Took a massive step backward. 7 more trades this month than last, probably because I wanted in to take  more trades to practice in-trade risk management but neglected out-trade management, whether I should really be taking the trade in the first place. My win rate is up to 41% from 35% which is an improvement but my largest and average profits/losses have suffered hugely.  With only 17% difference between my average win and loss size meaning I would need a success/hit rate of 83% to turn a profit the way I was trading this month. Last month the difference between my average win/loss was 42% so only a win rate of 58% was required. The numbers are telling me I will have a much better chance of success if I let my trades run and cutting losses quickly ( like last month) rather than trying for a high hit rate.

summary: I started getting a hang of my entry fears on a Paul Wallace quote " traders are paid to manage risk, analysts are paid to make the right calls" which finally hammered home the fact that I don't need to be right I just need to manage risk. I then thought (not wrongly) that because I have been avoiding trades for so long my in-trade risk management probably needed work/ practice. So I put on a lot more trades to practice my time stop and trail stop methods but was in all honesty a little lax on the entries and the levels I took, which of course is another part risk management and one that I neglected which clearly shows in the PL curve and numbers.  Ultimately I strayed from my plan a bit this month to satisfy some other parts of me, it's a hard one to say I was wrong to do this because my intrade risk management has improved but it is a timely reminder that risk management/trading most be a holistic approach. For this reason I need to go back and tidy up and amend my written plan (get the solider obeying commands again!)

lessons: It can be seen when I was sticking to plan at beginning of month the "lessons" were clear and useful. as I fell away from my plan the lessons were just a pile of drivel trying to reinvent the wheel (plan). The following are the good ones.

• stick to plan
• You can trade the M15 chart but no lower (Seiden)
• ensure you include the most extreme parts of levels 
• trade with the trend of the time frame you're on into longer term levels (you trade momentum not value)
• I have got better at managing risk, now I need to mange my entries. 
• when shooting stars/hammers fail it will usually be a full stop out, so very hard to reduce risk and might be better to wait for a re-attack instead of trading!
• Don't trade overtired.
• On time stops exit immediately after the third bar, it's had plenty of time an extra 5 mins aren't going to do much! 
•  Stick to Seiden's entry parameters
•  when at (many) tested level of demand or supply , you should look to fade it on a smaller timeframe. (seiden)
•  trading is about managing risk so trades should be measured by the following parameters: 1. ensuring that you are only risking x% of account (did). 2.  choosing low risk, high reward entries (didn't).2.  reducing risk (trail and time stops) in trade (did). 
• S&D is better drawn around some bars not one.
• lessons: 1. waiting for data to create moves that are then tradeable is useful and time efficient. 
•  I mustn't be scared of using limit orders to get into trades.
• lessons:  1. don't put so much weight on correlations, If you only have one true entry that's the only thing you can take!   
•  Don't be scared to trade re-attacks of levels!
•  Stop questioning the coach, start following the coach.

February 2015 Summary: R-0.2

Deposit/Withdrawal:		0.00		Credit Facility:				0.00
Closed Trade P/L:		-2.69		Floating P/L:				0.00	Margin:			0.00
Balance:		1 253.86		Equity:				1 253.86	Free Margin:			1 253.86
Gross Profit:		42.68		Gross Loss:				45.37	Total Net Profit:			-2.69
Profit Factor:		0.94		Expected Payoff:				-0.16
Absolute Drawdown:		33.97		Maximal Drawdown:				33.97 (2.70%)	Relative Drawdown:			2.70% (33.97)
Total Trades:		17		Short Positions (won %):				16 (37.50%)	Long Positions (won %):			1 (0.00%)
Profit Trades (% of total):								6 (35.29%)	Loss trades (% of total):			11 (64.71%)
Largest		profit trade:						14.08	loss trade:			-6.56
Average		profit trade:						7.11	loss trade:			-4.12
Maximum		consecutive wins ($):						3 (10.92)	consecutive losses ($):			7 (-33.97)
Maximal		consecutive profit (count):						22.76 (2)	consecutive loss (count):			-33.97 (7)
Average		consecutive wins:						2	consecutive losses:			3

intro: From the PL chart on it would appear that the first half of the month was poor and the second half better. Unfortunately I swapped my primary blog throughout the month so two third's of February's trades are on my old one, if you wish to see them you can here or there's a trade break down at the bottom of this post.

numbers: My win rate has taken a hit, down from from 48% to 35% from January. My largest win/loss trade and average win/loss trade have made great head way. Last month's largest win was only 9% more profitable than my largest loss.  This month my largest win was 115% more profitable than my largest loss. These sound amazing but the truth lies in the average win/loss numbers. Last month's average win was 19% more profitable than my average loss.  This month my average win is 73% more profitable than my average loss. On the whole this is very good progress and no doubt due to me getting my losses smaller in February by using momentum/time and trailing stops like my coach Paul (see "resources" page) suggested. He says "the first loss is your smallest", despite me understanding what he said I think I've only started believing/knowing it today.

thoughts: This month has been patchy. There was a lot going on in a new flat my fiance and I have just bought, I have had to be in and out during the day which has meant missing trades, particularly in the later part of the month. Having said this my worse trades were at the beginning of the month. 

 issues... 

1. not trailing stop fast enough
2. shorting off broken supply x 2
3. Late entry
4. Poor/No Prep
5. Completely uncorrelated entry 

lessons...

1. beware of small hammer and shooting star entry bars
2. I should be able to trade H4 levels on the H4 chart.
3. I need to be looking at the M30 and H4 charts simultaneously.
4. The pivot high/low isn't always exactly where the momentum kicked in!
5. If I'm rushing or impatient (watching price action rather than waiting on alerts to sound) I'm not in the right head space and it's probably best to leave it for the day.
6. when external things are really mounting up, it's best to deal with them first before starting trading.
7. label all H4 turning points and let price tell which are valid. 
8. try and get convergence across the pairs on your entries.
9. concetrate on Primary trades over secondary trades
10. On levels which have been touched multiple time it is better to draw a "best fit" supply/demand area rather than take it from the extreme of a pivot high or low like a did this AM.

summary: 2 break even months in a row is by far my best performance to date. Quite a lot to add to plan and guide but ultimately when I started getting my trailing and momentum stops going midway through month it was much easier to register gains and improve my averages!

____________________________________________________________________________________

trade breakdown...

Trade 1: EJ short,  good entry but could have trailed stop on M5 faster. = bad

Trade 2: GU short,  poor entry as supply had been broken (closed above) = bad

Trade 3: GU short,  poor entry as supply had been broken (closed above) = bad

Trade 4: GU short,  poor entry, initially fine but got in 3 bars after setup so no momentum! = bad

Trade 5: GU short.  good entry , tight loss exit =  good

Trade 6: EJ short.  good entry , tight loss exit =  good

Trade 7: EJ short.  good entry , tight loss exit =  good

Trade 8:  EJ short,  entry sell limit!, exit prior low =  profit= good

Trade 9:  EU short,  entry sell limit!, exit no momentum small loss  =  good

Trade 10: EJ short,  entry LOHP, exit no momentum small loss  =  good

Trade 11: EU short,  entry LOHP, exit Trail stop,  small loss  =  good

Trade 12: GU short,  entry LOHP (close above supply but v correlated), exit at demand for profit  =  good

Trade 13.  GU short.  good entry , tight loss exit =  good

Trade 14: EU short,  entry LOHP, exit demand, Win  =  good

Trade 15: EJ short,  entry LOHP(close above supply but v correlated), exit demand, Win  =  good

Trade 16: EU short,  entry bad (poor prep and uncorrelated!), exit fast =  bad

Trade 17: EJ short,  entry okay ( but small shooting star!) exit trailing stop. okay