No Trades: Struggling With Entries and Exits

EJ trade: worried about M30 demand cutting short, short. 

 EU trade: got supply level in wrong place.

intro: added 3 new pairs as coach suggested. I chose the USDCHF, USDJPY and AUDUSD, however I'm taking them off. At the moment life is very hectic.  My fiancée and I have just exchanged on a flat that is riddled with problems and is taking up a lot of my time seeing as I am the one who "works from home". Couple this with the fact that there are issues at a property I rent out that is my main source of income, suffice to say I am pretty stressed.

thoughts: there were 2 issues today the first being where to get in the second being where to take profit. The EU and EJ were the only pairs to potentially setup but I scared myself out of the short trades on the M30 charts because there was M30 demand nearer than 3:1 on the EJ. This fear was definitely due to reading a Seiden article yesterday about why trades fail. But this was regarding stocks and my D1, H4 and M30 charts were all trending down and so the only demand I should really have been fearful of was  a longer term one and that (H4) would have achieved a 3:1 and did. And I missed an entry on the EU because I got my supply level in the wrong place.

summary: stressed means I ballsed up entries and lost objectivity regarding supply and demand. Not surprising really I didn't get any trades.

lessons: 1. trading with trend, trade into longer term levels. counter trend trading , be aware of M30 levels. 2. S&D is better drawn around some bars not one.

morning prep:

afternoon summary:

Nothing Triggered

intro: Simplified prep this morning to just 1 supply and demand level on each time-frame as Seiden suggests. 

morning prep:

afternoon summary:

Missed EJ Trade

intro: Did prep this AM, initially found it hard as I'm quite tired and price is retracing to long-term levels.

thoughts: plan was to wait for ECB interest rates and US initial jobless claims, then wait some more for the reaction to push price into a level of supply or demand and then take the other side.

summary: I did do the above however I missed my entry because I was looking for a LOHP short rather than a sell limit entry.

lessons: 1. waiting for data to create moves that are then tradeable is useful and time efficient. 2. I mustn't be scared of using limit orders to get into trades.

EJ missed trade:

morning prep:

afternoon summary:

BBC Traders Millions By The Minute Season 1 Episode 2 Full Episode ( from 10mins 15secs to 12mins 10secs are the most interesting IMHO)

No Trades

intro: Nothing setup so just my prep and summary. NB using slightly wider S&D areas, see video.

morning prep:

afternoon summary:

R-0.4: 1 Loss EJ, Missed 2 good trades

intro:  One trade on the EJ, Long at H4 demand wouldn't have traded it any differently. But missed some trades.

thoughts:  After my losing trade I went out for a run.  When I got home I missed a couple of good long trades on the EU and GU which occurred in H4 demand because no alerts sounded to alert to the level of interest. The problem being the tradesoccurred in a wide area of interest. I also probably got a little carried away worrying about getting a convergence of M30 and H4 demand.

summary: Placed one good trade  but missed two great ones because I couldn't set alerts to draw my attention to them as the range they occurred in was too wide for alerts to be effective. This means that I am going to have to "check in" every 30 mins (as entries are on M30) when price reaches an area of interest to ensure I don't miss entries.

lessons: 1. When price reaches a long term supply/demand level check in every 30 min period to ensure you don't miss any trade setups. 2.  When prices reaches a long term area all setups are valid

morning prep

afternoon summary

EJ trade

R-1.0: 1 Loss EJ, 1 Breakeven EU

intro: A very long wait today for any trades to occur and got impatient. This resulted in me forcing a trade on the EJ.

thoughts: The EU trade was good, the EJ trade was bad. I think I am putting too much emphasis on high correlations. The EU and EJ were very highly correlated today and I felt I should really be getting short on both at the same time. This resulted in me taking a short on the EJ from a weak level of H4 supply I wouldn't ordinarily use just because it coincided with a EU short.

summary: Had I just taken the EU short I would have been break even for the day, possibly had I got in on the re-attack as my coach suggests I would have got a win and clearly XLT traders do this too. Whatever... the most important thing is that I didn't trade my plan and I got bit in the ass for it.

lessons:  1. don't put so much weight on correlations, If you only have one true entry that's the only thing you can take! Yes ideally it would have been great to get short the EU and EJ today as there correlation was very high but don't force it. 2. only use pivot highs/lows and gaps with strong momentum moves as supply/demand! 3. Don't be scared to trade re-attacks of levels! 4. if it wasn't clear at the time it wasn't a trade but if the move off it was fast it might now be a tradeable level.5. Stop questioning the coach, start following the coach.

morning prep...

afternoon summary...

EU trade...

EJ trade...(weak supply... not actually supply!)

February 2015 Summary: R-0.2

Deposit/Withdrawal:		0.00		Credit Facility:				0.00
Closed Trade P/L:		-2.69		Floating P/L:				0.00	Margin:			0.00
Balance:		1 253.86		Equity:				1 253.86	Free Margin:			1 253.86
Gross Profit:		42.68		Gross Loss:				45.37	Total Net Profit:			-2.69
Profit Factor:		0.94		Expected Payoff:				-0.16
Absolute Drawdown:		33.97		Maximal Drawdown:				33.97 (2.70%)	Relative Drawdown:			2.70% (33.97)
Total Trades:		17		Short Positions (won %):				16 (37.50%)	Long Positions (won %):			1 (0.00%)
Profit Trades (% of total):								6 (35.29%)	Loss trades (% of total):			11 (64.71%)
Largest		profit trade:						14.08	loss trade:			-6.56
Average		profit trade:						7.11	loss trade:			-4.12
Maximum		consecutive wins ($):						3 (10.92)	consecutive losses ($):			7 (-33.97)
Maximal		consecutive profit (count):						22.76 (2)	consecutive loss (count):			-33.97 (7)
Average		consecutive wins:						2	consecutive losses:			3

intro: From the PL chart on it would appear that the first half of the month was poor and the second half better. Unfortunately I swapped my primary blog throughout the month so two third's of February's trades are on my old one, if you wish to see them you can here or there's a trade break down at the bottom of this post.

numbers: My win rate has taken a hit, down from from 48% to 35% from January. My largest win/loss trade and average win/loss trade have made great head way. Last month's largest win was only 9% more profitable than my largest loss.  This month my largest win was 115% more profitable than my largest loss. These sound amazing but the truth lies in the average win/loss numbers. Last month's average win was 19% more profitable than my average loss.  This month my average win is 73% more profitable than my average loss. On the whole this is very good progress and no doubt due to me getting my losses smaller in February by using momentum/time and trailing stops like my coach Paul (see "resources" page) suggested. He says "the first loss is your smallest", despite me understanding what he said I think I've only started believing/knowing it today.

thoughts: This month has been patchy. There was a lot going on in a new flat my fiance and I have just bought, I have had to be in and out during the day which has meant missing trades, particularly in the later part of the month. Having said this my worse trades were at the beginning of the month. 

 issues... 

1. not trailing stop fast enough
2. shorting off broken supply x 2
3. Late entry
4. Poor/No Prep
5. Completely uncorrelated entry 

lessons...

1. beware of small hammer and shooting star entry bars
2. I should be able to trade H4 levels on the H4 chart.
3. I need to be looking at the M30 and H4 charts simultaneously.
4. The pivot high/low isn't always exactly where the momentum kicked in!
5. If I'm rushing or impatient (watching price action rather than waiting on alerts to sound) I'm not in the right head space and it's probably best to leave it for the day.
6. when external things are really mounting up, it's best to deal with them first before starting trading.
7. label all H4 turning points and let price tell which are valid. 
8. try and get convergence across the pairs on your entries.
9. concetrate on Primary trades over secondary trades
10. On levels which have been touched multiple time it is better to draw a "best fit" supply/demand area rather than take it from the extreme of a pivot high or low like a did this AM.

summary: 2 break even months in a row is by far my best performance to date. Quite a lot to add to plan and guide but ultimately when I started getting my trailing and momentum stops going midway through month it was much easier to register gains and improve my averages!

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trade breakdown...

Trade 1: EJ short,  good entry but could have trailed stop on M5 faster. = bad

Trade 2: GU short,  poor entry as supply had been broken (closed above) = bad

Trade 3: GU short,  poor entry as supply had been broken (closed above) = bad

Trade 4: GU short,  poor entry, initially fine but got in 3 bars after setup so no momentum! = bad

Trade 5: GU short.  good entry , tight loss exit =  good

Trade 6: EJ short.  good entry , tight loss exit =  good

Trade 7: EJ short.  good entry , tight loss exit =  good

Trade 8:  EJ short,  entry sell limit!, exit prior low =  profit= good

Trade 9:  EU short,  entry sell limit!, exit no momentum small loss  =  good

Trade 10: EJ short,  entry LOHP, exit no momentum small loss  =  good

Trade 11: EU short,  entry LOHP, exit Trail stop,  small loss  =  good

Trade 12: GU short,  entry LOHP (close above supply but v correlated), exit at demand for profit  =  good

Trade 13.  GU short.  good entry , tight loss exit =  good

Trade 14: EU short,  entry LOHP, exit demand, Win  =  good

Trade 15: EJ short,  entry LOHP(close above supply but v correlated), exit demand, Win  =  good

Trade 16: EU short,  entry bad (poor prep and uncorrelated!), exit fast =  bad

Trade 17: EJ short,  entry okay ( but small shooting star!) exit trailing stop. okay