R-2 1. Target failed to trigger. 2. Hit stop

EJ trade: Shorted at Supply but broker didn't honour my target, you can see it was hit but didn't trigger, Pissed off! Good Trade.

EU trade:  Short at longterm fresh supply R-1, had a feeling this level might be tested harshly but not really something I could prepare for on any timeframe (I checked). So nothing to moan about on this one just didn't work out. Good trade in theory.

intro: Again doing set and forget. Chose what I believe were good potential supply levels, targets and stops but broker screwed me on my exit on the EJ trade, the other hit it's stop.

thoughts: On a metaphorical level while I was at the flat today sanding the ceiling by hand and thinking what a shit job it was, I realised that yes it was a shit job in terms of effort required but it was really quite an easy job. I just kept asking myself "is this little bit as smooth as it can be"? Yes -  move on, No - keep going. Then I thought that this job, trading with a set of rules, is really quite an easy job, yes it requires effort to continue to be disciplined and patient (the shit), but then it's just the same as the sanding, "does this trade meet my requirements"? Yes - take it,  No -  keep waiting.  Which made me think of something John says "it's not easy but it's not difficult"... I guess here I'm sort of saying saying "it's shit/hardwork, but it's easy", which makes no fucking sense at all! his is much better hahaha . There was also something about the scale of the sanding that made me draw comparisons to trading. If I looked at the whole ceiling the two inches I was working seemed pointless, which is a good metaphor for how I should look at individual trades. They're just being a tiny part of a trading year.  Don't know, maybe you had to be there. ha!

summary: Pissed off but that isn't going to fix anything, going to have reduce my target and accommodate the brokers spread when setting targets. EJ trade = Good trade, bad luck. EU trade =  just a trade.

lessons: 1. accommodate the brokers spread and nearby price action when setting targets.

video:

R+2 EU Sell Stop Short

EU Trade: Shorted at long term/multiple levels of supply

intro: Got a lot on at the moment external to trading, so have decided to put my trading a little on the back burner. Still looking in the AM but following Seiden's advice of set and forget. So limit orders used then CPU turned off and checked end of day, more in the video...

thoughts: actually pretty stress free, which was nice! Also back blogging feels good too,  bit of routine again!

summary: not much to say,  trade worked. Guess I've got to decide whether to hold limit orders overnight or cancel them. 

video: keeping it simple over next few weeks

video: today's summary

March 2015 Summary: R-0.4

Deposit/Withdrawal:		0.00		Credit Facility:				0.00
Closed Trade P/L:		-8.64		Floating P/L:				0.00	Margin:			0.00
Balance:		1 245.22		Equity:				1 245.22	Free Margin:			1 245.22
Details:
Gross Profit:		56.11		Gross Loss:				64.75	Total Net Profit:			-8.64
Profit Factor:		0.87		Expected Payoff:				-0.36
Absolute Drawdown:		19.54		Maximal Drawdown:				24.78 (1.97%)	Relative Drawdown:			1.97% (24.78)
Total Trades:		24		Short Positions (won %):				22 (45.45%)	Long Positions (won %):			2 (0.00%)
Profit Trades (% of total):								10 (41.67%)	Loss trades (% of total):			14 (58.33%)
Largest		profit trade:						15.08	loss trade:			-12.48
Average		profit trade:						5.61	loss trade:			-4.63
Maximum		consecutive wins ($):						3 (22.20)	consecutive losses ($):			3 (-19.98)
Maximal		consecutive profit (count):						22.20 (3)	consecutive loss (count):			-19.98 (3)
Average		consecutive wins:						1	consecutive losses:			2

intro: from the PL chart it seems there was very little consistency this month, a sea of chop! And this I believe is the truth.

numbers: Took a massive step backward. 7 more trades this month than last, probably because I wanted in to take  more trades to practice in-trade risk management but neglected out-trade management, whether I should really be taking the trade in the first place. My win rate is up to 41% from 35% which is an improvement but my largest and average profits/losses have suffered hugely.  With only 17% difference between my average win and loss size meaning I would need a success/hit rate of 83% to turn a profit the way I was trading this month. Last month the difference between my average win/loss was 42% so only a win rate of 58% was required. The numbers are telling me I will have a much better chance of success if I let my trades run and cutting losses quickly ( like last month) rather than trying for a high hit rate.

summary: I started getting a hang of my entry fears on a Paul Wallace quote " traders are paid to manage risk, analysts are paid to make the right calls" which finally hammered home the fact that I don't need to be right I just need to manage risk. I then thought (not wrongly) that because I have been avoiding trades for so long my in-trade risk management probably needed work/ practice. So I put on a lot more trades to practice my time stop and trail stop methods but was in all honesty a little lax on the entries and the levels I took, which of course is another part risk management and one that I neglected which clearly shows in the PL curve and numbers.  Ultimately I strayed from my plan a bit this month to satisfy some other parts of me, it's a hard one to say I was wrong to do this because my intrade risk management has improved but it is a timely reminder that risk management/trading most be a holistic approach. For this reason I need to go back and tidy up and amend my written plan (get the solider obeying commands again!)

lessons: It can be seen when I was sticking to plan at beginning of month the "lessons" were clear and useful. as I fell away from my plan the lessons were just a pile of drivel trying to reinvent the wheel (plan). The following are the good ones.

• stick to plan
• You can trade the M15 chart but no lower (Seiden)
• ensure you include the most extreme parts of levels 
• trade with the trend of the time frame you're on into longer term levels (you trade momentum not value)
• I have got better at managing risk, now I need to mange my entries. 
• when shooting stars/hammers fail it will usually be a full stop out, so very hard to reduce risk and might be better to wait for a re-attack instead of trading!
• Don't trade overtired.
• On time stops exit immediately after the third bar, it's had plenty of time an extra 5 mins aren't going to do much! 
•  Stick to Seiden's entry parameters
•  when at (many) tested level of demand or supply , you should look to fade it on a smaller timeframe. (seiden)
•  trading is about managing risk so trades should be measured by the following parameters: 1. ensuring that you are only risking x% of account (did). 2.  choosing low risk, high reward entries (didn't).2.  reducing risk (trail and time stops) in trade (did). 
• S&D is better drawn around some bars not one.
• lessons: 1. waiting for data to create moves that are then tradeable is useful and time efficient. 
•  I mustn't be scared of using limit orders to get into trades.
• lessons:  1. don't put so much weight on correlations, If you only have one true entry that's the only thing you can take!   
•  Don't be scared to trade re-attacks of levels!
•  Stop questioning the coach, start following the coach.

R+0.4: 1 Win

EU trade: Shorted downtrend at M15 supply,  exit at M15 demand

intro: just bonkers outside of trading at the mo. One trade around lunch time, saw this nice rally into fresh supply so took a short.

thoughts: Would have been nice to hold for second target, something I need to work on! Guess I could have continued trailing my stop or taken partial targets.

summary: Nice to be back on better form. Trading more on plan than I have been some of this month and seemed to be rewarded for it... but plan definitely needs more going over and ironing out.

lessons: stick to plan

Chasing Price

Monday and Tuesday and possibly last week  can be summed up by an underlying, leaning towards chasing price rather than waiting for it. This is likely due to my not having read my method for a long time while continuing to study Seiden articles which have got me a bit "method swappy".

Will likely take tomorrow off and clear head then come back.

R-0.2: 2 Losses

EJ trade: after new low close on M30 chart, drilled down to M5 to short pivot high,  exit time stop (R-0.2)

GU trade: when price returned to M30 supply, shorted pivot high, exit time stop (R+0.03)

Missed EU trade: because hadn't labelled extremes see below

intro: woke more tired than I thought I would annoyingly. Did prep keeping it simple, 2 levels on each time frame then waited for them to trigger.  First trade was on the EJ m5 chart experimenting with this sort of momentum play I've been spotting. Second trade more a classic trade of mine, short at supply on GU.

thoughts: NA

summary: had I traded 1:1 I would have got that, but I went for more and ended up break even.  

lessons: quite tired so going to take the following with a pinch of salt.  1.  ensure you're using the more extreme parts of levels as you missed a couple of good trades on the EU and EJ because you used more middling areas which then looked as if they had been tested several times. 2. trade with the trend of the time frame you're on into longer term levels (you trade momentum not value)

videos:

R-0.2: 1 Loss, 1 Win, 1 Break even

EJ trade 1: Shorted shooting star (that I hate) at supply got full stopped, didn't correlate with EU or GU (R-0.1)

EJ trade 2:  Short with downtrend, at supply into demand (R+0.8)

EU trade:  (R0) shorted with down trend at supply, exit on time stop

Potential M5 trend trading strategy:

Observation: not really trading the best H4 level...

intro: too blood wound up with the missus to write this objectively. (She buys a flat then I have to drop everything to look after it, because I work at home. Either way she clearly thinks that what she has to do is far more important than what have to do, grrrr). More tomorrow...

intro 2.1: Price was hovering between old supply and demand levels on all pairs this morning (Friday), so my idea was to wait for price to (probably) rally (as the long term trend was down) into a fresh and longer-term level of supply and take a high probability short there. I took three trades, one loss, one win, one break even.

thoughts: My first trade was on the EJ at an M30/H4 supply level but the trigger was a shooting star (which often punish me) and the other pairs (EU and GU) were nowhere near supply levels, so little correlation. This trade took me out at my full stop loss and there was truly no way I could have reduced risk with the exception of not having taken the trade in the first place. My second 2 trades were on the EJ and EU,  no shooting stars present and both setup at the same time (so correlated),  one worked the other faded away. The most interesting thing about today was a trend I spotted and trades that fitted on it  that started on the M30 charts. M30 price was initially ranging but after an M30 bar closed solidly above this range (new high close), trading pull-backs on the M5 chart in the direction of the M30 close would have been very fruitful, see above.    

summary: Ultimately I think I've been putting a little too much emphasis on entering trades to manage risk the last couple of days, this thought started and rightly so a couple of weeks ago because I knew I needed to practice managing in-trade risk (working time and trailing stops correctly). However I've done that now and I need to go back to a more complete method, namely I need to be more "picky"/ mechanical/"checklisty" on my entries AND manage in-trade risk correctly.  Today for example the M5 trades would have been great , but some of the H4 levels I was looking at were fundamentally flawed because they had such high wave wicks.  It would have been better to wait for a surer / fresher level before looking to short (see pic above).

lessons: 1. I have got better at managing risk, now I need to mange my entries. 2. when shooting stars/hammers fail it will usually be a full stop out, so very hard to reduce risk and might be better to wait for a re-attack instead of trading! 3. M5 becomes tradeable on new high or low low close on M30 = trend.

prep:

trading day: