Back! (sporadically)

personal: As you may or may not know I got married a month ago.  It seems to have been the longest wedding known to man! My brother and sister in-law stayed with us for 2 weeks after the wedding then we all flew to Canada for a further 2 weeks, where they're from, taking the wedding on tour for those who couldn't make it.
Back now but the major issue is the flat I've been moaning about previously. We need to move in by the end of the month because it's killing us financially, paying rent and mortgage simultaneously. Suffice to say that finding quiet time for trading and/or DIY has been quite difficult recently. So to get back and have a relatively free calender is a godsend. For that reason and to max my DIY time I'm putting my trading efforts to the end of the day/evening so I can get multiple/consecutive hours doing what needs to be done in the flat. As such my posts might be sporadic for this month.

trading: Method is still pretty much the same: Identify longterm levels of supply and demand and trade them on shorter time frames. However my favoured time frames have changed to W1 and H1 to find levels, and the D1 and M15 respectfully to trade from.
The reason for this change is firstly because I noticed that the H4 levels were a little too wide and I was missing good intraday moves. And secondly because they are universal times. Meaning that whatever broker or chart feed you look at (GMT / GMT+2 etc) the bars should look the same, because globally every hour and week finish at the same time.
As far as entries go my coach has told me to start looking for candle setups at levels rather than using limit orders but this might be difficult this month due to the above. I'll endeavour to do as he asks but being at the charts every hour will obviously be difficult. That's pretty much it for now, there's a little more in the video below about trades and levels.

video: update, prep and trade plan for day/week. Not uploading for some reason so just a pic sorry...

April 2015 Summary: -0.2

Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal:		0.00		Credit Facility:				0.00
Closed Trade P/L:		-2.60		Floating P/L:				0.00	Margin:			0.00
Balance:		1 242.62		Equity:				1 242.62	Free Margin:			1 242.62
Details:
Gross Profit:		49.84		Gross Loss:				52.44	Total Net Profit:			-2.60
Profit Factor:		0.95		Expected Payoff:				-0.26
Absolute Drawdown:		34.06		Maximal Drawdown:				46.14 (3.67%)	Relative Drawdown:			3.67% (46.14)
Total Trades:		10		Short Positions (won %):				10 (40.00%)	Long Positions (won %):			0 (0.00%)
Profit Trades (% of total):								4 (40.00%)	Loss trades (% of total):			6 (60.00%)
Largest		profit trade:						20.10	loss trade:			-11.56
Average		profit trade:						12.46	loss trade:			-8.74
Maximum		consecutive wins ($):						2 (30.86)	consecutive losses ($):			5 (-46.14)
Maximal		consecutive profit (count):						30.86 (2)	consecutive loss (count):			-46.14 (5)
Average		consecutive wins:						1	consecutive losses:			3

intro: a funny month as had much on outside of trading. This meant adapting my method mid-month so that I didn't have to be around for trade entries or manage "in-trade" risk.

graph: the major draw down (trades 1-6) came from my first week with the new method, I was still "finding my way" with it. The second week using the new method improved and made up most of my losses.

numbers: Going to call this a break even month (-0.2). which is definitely an improvement on last March (-0.7). Happy to see my hit rate is staying around 40%. My largest win was 42% more profitable than my largest loss,  while my average win was 29% more profitable than my largest loss, again better than March but still room for improvement in both these areas as I would need a large 61% wine rate to turn my efforts profitable. 

summary: My win rate has been between 35-42% for the last four months which means that to turn profitable I need to get my average win 58-65% greater than my average loss. The only two ways I can do that is by letting my winners run, this I'm not sure is possible as I am already trading price into the next level of S/D. Or by reducing risk. The following are what I wish to work on in May...

1. ensuring that you are always risking 1% of account per trade. actually went under size this month! so a +2R gain only registered a 1% gain in P/L.

2.  choosing low risk, high reward entries. started poorly this month but got better 

3.  reducing risk (trail and time stops) in trade. harder to do this month as using a "set and forgot" method.

lessons:

1. accommodate the brokers spread and nearby price action when setting targets.

2. Find potential demand levels in uptrend price action, find potential supply levels in downtrend price action.

3. you got to swing the bat, to hit the ball. 

4. using quality S/D (pivot high/lo) on higher time frames means higher probabilities as levels are clearer for all to see so therefore less exploritory breakouts that can take out stops. 

5. ask yourself if your level is truly supply/demand or just a pivot hi/lo. 

6. hard drops/rallies from a level and price spending very little time at the level are positive factors.

7. don't make trading/plan decisions when tired!

R+0.6: 1 Win

GU Trade: Long term trend down, Shorted at H4 supply (R+0.6)

intro: this was a sell limit I set up last week. It triggered last night and I took profit this morning just above my pre-set target as I noticed that price had put in a newer high (7 bars ago) since my setting it.

thoughts: Am aware that there has been a steady trend up recently across the major pairs and particularly the GU, this can be clearly seen on the H4 chart above. A part of me looked at this this morning and thought "I wish I had been trading to the long side the past week or so". But in reality this a shorter term swing trend and would have been not only very difficult to trade given my current time restrictions (imposed by a busy life) but also there is a high chance that my success rate would have dropped as it would have meant drilling down to smaller time frames to find levels and these are never going to be as powerful as the longer term levels I am trading currently. I am tired today and am only blogging to document this trade but it's still amazing that a brief look at the charts when tired made me double guess my work/strategy. So am going to finish this up sharpish and turn the bloody charts off! There

summary: a simple short at long term supply with the daily long term trend down. There might well be opportunities down on lower time frames but now (wedding week) is not the time to explore them!

lesson: don't make trading/plan decisions when tired!

R +1.2: 1 Win, 1 Loss

EJ trade: Shorted at H4 Supply with trend...(R+1.7)

EU trade: Shorted at weak H4 Supply (many tests) R-0.5

intro: so these trades were from orders placed on Wednesday and Thursday, I'm only updating today as they were triggered last night so not much to say until now.

thoughts: The EU trade was a loss probably because I was shorting really at an area where there was lack of buying interest rather than true supply. The EJ trade however I believe was a better supply level for 3 reasons. Firstly price spent very little time there, secondly the strong and aggressive drop from it, both suggesting a supply/demand imbalance, thirdly this was clearly the first revisit.

summary: All in all happy with this weeks efforts, I have managed to learn some lessons (with some help, thank you John) and have a positive week in terms of P/L. Quite possibly the last week of the month for me as next week is "wedding week"!

lessons: 1. ask yourself if your level is truly supply/demand or just a pivot hi/lo. 2. hard drops/rallies from a level and price spending very little time at the level are positive factors.

prep from the week:

end of week summary:

R+0.4: 1 Win, 1 Loss

EU Trade: Shorted at H4 Supply, but wasn't a great pivot high (more counter trend bar)

GU Trade: Shorted at H4 supply, slightly better pivot high?

intro: Placed 3 sell stops this morning,  two triggered, EU and GU. EU got stopped out then went my way,  GU triggered and I took profit before but near target as didn't want to hold over night.

thoughts: just wondering whether the EU H4 supply wasn't quite as strong as the GU level, due to it not being as clear a pivot high. Happy to accept that it was just bad luck/probabilities though.

summary: Again got to say "set and forget" is  much easier psychologically. Guess one danger is wanting to polish your edge too much that it crumbles. 

lesson: 1. you got to swing the bat, to hit the ball. 2. using quality S/D (pivot high/lo) on higher time frames means higher probabilities as levels are clearer for all to see so therefore less exploritory breakouts that can take out stops. 

video: AM prep

R-2: Both Trades Stopped, Shorting at Bad Supply

EU Trade: Shorted at incorrect Supply level (Pivot high in an uptrend).

EJ Trade:  Shorted at poor Supply (Pivot high in an upswing/trend).

intro: Took 2 short trades from weak supply levels because they (the supply levels) originated in an up trend, not down trend. 

thoughts: something felt wrong/off about these trades from the start but perfectly fitted my trade plan so couldn't not take them. In all the probably hundred plus Seiden articles I've read he's never mentioned finding supply levels from down trend price action or demand levels from up trend price action but feel like I'm making a valid point here and my Monday and Tuesday "good" trades corroborate it. (I guess his articles are free so he can't give up all the knowledge he expects people to pay for).

summary: 2 losses but feels like for the greater cause. The observation above/lesson below feels like a cheap one to potentially improve my edge quite a bit. Would like to say that despite the losses like a said yesterday this "set and forget" trading is easy and this is because I'm not wrestling emotions.

lesson: Find potential demand levels in uptrend price action, find potential supply levels in downtrend price action.

video:

No Trades, Overtired

intro: No Trades, noticed I was double guessing my game plans, which I only do when I'm tired so called it a day as know even when I pick a good trade I always manage to f*ck it up. Kept thinking of that quote of Paul's "Ambiguity in a fast moving market is going to kill you"!

video: