250615 Prep and Update

More improvement in my reads as I just stick to the trade plan:

1. Get the long term levels from W1 and D1 charts.

2. Get the current levels from H4 and M30 charts.

3. Plan trades between the current levels.

Suppy and demand strengthening factors: look for strong momentum moves/trend bars, this is where hard buying /selling was taking place. Zone in on the origin of these strong momentum moves, if it is a fractal pivot high/low that's great, if a cluster of fractal, ensure you include the extremes to avoid an early stop, even stretch the zone to the next fractal if you can. It's nice for the the level to be "fresh"/untested but this isn't always possible.

240615 Prep on on Multiple Timeframes

Okay a slightly different approach today. Started out on the weekly charts as per usual but instead looked primarily for "primary trades" on the 4 hour chart levels (as my plan says, duh!) and then drilled down to the M30 to look for "secondary trades" /shorter term trades (as my plan says!). This was a much better day in terms of both reading because I got back to what my plan says... why must I constantly try and reinvent the wheel, like I have been since I got back? Ha!

230615 Prep and S&D explanation

My prep from this morning and an update later in the day... Forgot to double check my selected levels on 2 time frames (should have consulted the H4 too). Any way no money risked as still getting my eye in so not the end of the world but always annoying that all this stuff doesn't stay retained unless I'm active.

220615 Prep and Analysis

intro: Just keeping my eye in, hope to be back next week more regularly but may well be 2 weeks realistically, has have to move too.



thoughts: Note I am happy trading older levels, provided the most recent test of them was strong, suggesting there may still well be supply/demand imbalance / unfilled buy/sell orders there.

Fractal Entry Idea

intro: missed a lot of trades today but that was expected due to the DIY-a-thon for the next few weeks.

thoughts: just wanted to record this screen shot below, there were 3 of these setups across the pairs today, this is one one them.  It shows a M15 entry I was talking about in my last video about.

EU trade: Short at H1 Supply

AM video:

Back! (sporadically)

personal: As you may or may not know I got married a month ago.  It seems to have been the longest wedding known to man! My brother and sister in-law stayed with us for 2 weeks after the wedding then we all flew to Canada for a further 2 weeks, where they're from, taking the wedding on tour for those who couldn't make it.
Back now but the major issue is the flat I've been moaning about previously. We need to move in by the end of the month because it's killing us financially, paying rent and mortgage simultaneously. Suffice to say that finding quiet time for trading and/or DIY has been quite difficult recently. So to get back and have a relatively free calender is a godsend. For that reason and to max my DIY time I'm putting my trading efforts to the end of the day/evening so I can get multiple/consecutive hours doing what needs to be done in the flat. As such my posts might be sporadic for this month.

trading: Method is still pretty much the same: Identify longterm levels of supply and demand and trade them on shorter time frames. However my favoured time frames have changed to W1 and H1 to find levels, and the D1 and M15 respectfully to trade from.
The reason for this change is firstly because I noticed that the H4 levels were a little too wide and I was missing good intraday moves. And secondly because they are universal times. Meaning that whatever broker or chart feed you look at (GMT / GMT+2 etc) the bars should look the same, because globally every hour and week finish at the same time.
As far as entries go my coach has told me to start looking for candle setups at levels rather than using limit orders but this might be difficult this month due to the above. I'll endeavour to do as he asks but being at the charts every hour will obviously be difficult. That's pretty much it for now, there's a little more in the video below about trades and levels.

video: update, prep and trade plan for day/week. Not uploading for some reason so just a pic sorry...

April 2015 Summary: -0.2

Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal:		0.00		Credit Facility:				0.00
Closed Trade P/L:		-2.60		Floating P/L:				0.00	Margin:			0.00
Balance:		1 242.62		Equity:				1 242.62	Free Margin:			1 242.62
Details:
Gross Profit:		49.84		Gross Loss:				52.44	Total Net Profit:			-2.60
Profit Factor:		0.95		Expected Payoff:				-0.26
Absolute Drawdown:		34.06		Maximal Drawdown:				46.14 (3.67%)	Relative Drawdown:			3.67% (46.14)
Total Trades:		10		Short Positions (won %):				10 (40.00%)	Long Positions (won %):			0 (0.00%)
Profit Trades (% of total):								4 (40.00%)	Loss trades (% of total):			6 (60.00%)
Largest		profit trade:						20.10	loss trade:			-11.56
Average		profit trade:						12.46	loss trade:			-8.74
Maximum		consecutive wins ($):						2 (30.86)	consecutive losses ($):			5 (-46.14)
Maximal		consecutive profit (count):						30.86 (2)	consecutive loss (count):			-46.14 (5)
Average		consecutive wins:						1	consecutive losses:			3

intro: a funny month as had much on outside of trading. This meant adapting my method mid-month so that I didn't have to be around for trade entries or manage "in-trade" risk.

graph: the major draw down (trades 1-6) came from my first week with the new method, I was still "finding my way" with it. The second week using the new method improved and made up most of my losses.

numbers: Going to call this a break even month (-0.2). which is definitely an improvement on last March (-0.7). Happy to see my hit rate is staying around 40%. My largest win was 42% more profitable than my largest loss,  while my average win was 29% more profitable than my largest loss, again better than March but still room for improvement in both these areas as I would need a large 61% wine rate to turn my efforts profitable. 

summary: My win rate has been between 35-42% for the last four months which means that to turn profitable I need to get my average win 58-65% greater than my average loss. The only two ways I can do that is by letting my winners run, this I'm not sure is possible as I am already trading price into the next level of S/D. Or by reducing risk. The following are what I wish to work on in May...

1. ensuring that you are always risking 1% of account per trade. actually went under size this month! so a +2R gain only registered a 1% gain in P/L.

2.  choosing low risk, high reward entries. started poorly this month but got better 

3.  reducing risk (trail and time stops) in trade. harder to do this month as using a "set and forgot" method.

lessons:

1. accommodate the brokers spread and nearby price action when setting targets.

2. Find potential demand levels in uptrend price action, find potential supply levels in downtrend price action.

3. you got to swing the bat, to hit the ball. 

4. using quality S/D (pivot high/lo) on higher time frames means higher probabilities as levels are clearer for all to see so therefore less exploritory breakouts that can take out stops. 

5. ask yourself if your level is truly supply/demand or just a pivot hi/lo. 

6. hard drops/rallies from a level and price spending very little time at the level are positive factors.

7. don't make trading/plan decisions when tired!