Fear Beats Greed (catalyst)

there's a catalyst(s) in here somewhere

So Wednesday evening we had quite a few events; US monthly budget statement, which came out worse than expected, then, of course, the 3 hour US press conference.

Rex was banging on about Syria...

then Russia...

and finally, Trump came along talked about the USD...

the catalysts

The above events had the effect of killing the USD (it has since recovered much of its loss) but there was quite a lot going on here and felt I needed to revisit them and identify the individual effects and causes.

NB: When trying to identify catalysts what I am looking for is events that that will trigger either weaken (fear) or strengthen (greed) the status quo.

1. US monthly budget statement: worse than expected is "technically" bearish for the USD but this is not a highly watched or volatile event, the numbers weren't drastically off so really was very low impact. Not a catalyst.
2.  Assad/Syria: War uncertainty,  to me this means Gold, Bonds, JPY and USD should appreciate and stocks should suffer. This is definitely a "negative" catalyst, war triggers uncertainty and fear and weakens the status quo.
3. Russia Relations: Uncertainty, even, fear of war. Again to me this means Gold, Bonds, JPY and USD should appreciate and stocks should suffer. This is another "negative" catalyst, uncertainty/fear over the status quo.
4. Trump wanting a weaker USD: This a funny one as there is clearly a winner and loser. This is dovish for the USD and positive for stocks. Ultimately this is best seen as a "positive" catalyst for stocks, as it creates some sort of stability (strengthens the status quo) and hence greed.

fear beats greed

As the title and subtitle state, the rule I use to help digest events is; "fear beats greed".Ultimately most investors in Wall Street and Main Street alike are here to make long-term gains for their pensions, retirements etc. They have worked hard and saved that hard earned money diligently. They (clients and fund managers) will always be scared of losing their initial capital, so when an event hits the market that causes "fear"/ threatens the status quo, they will almost always switch to a capital preservation approach where capital will be less exposed to risk. As such my feeling from the events above is that Gold, Bonds, JPY and USD should appreciate and stocks will probably suffer.