R+0.6: 1 Win

GU Trade: Long term trend down, Shorted at H4 supply (R+0.6)

intro: this was a sell limit I set up last week. It triggered last night and I took profit this morning just above my pre-set target as I noticed that price had put in a newer high (7 bars ago) since my setting it.

thoughts: Am aware that there has been a steady trend up recently across the major pairs and particularly the GU, this can be clearly seen on the H4 chart above. A part of me looked at this this morning and thought "I wish I had been trading to the long side the past week or so". But in reality this a shorter term swing trend and would have been not only very difficult to trade given my current time restrictions (imposed by a busy life) but also there is a high chance that my success rate would have dropped as it would have meant drilling down to smaller time frames to find levels and these are never going to be as powerful as the longer term levels I am trading currently. I am tired today and am only blogging to document this trade but it's still amazing that a brief look at the charts when tired made me double guess my work/strategy. So am going to finish this up sharpish and turn the bloody charts off! There

summary: a simple short at long term supply with the daily long term trend down. There might well be opportunities down on lower time frames but now (wedding week) is not the time to explore them!

lesson: don't make trading/plan decisions when tired!

R +1.2: 1 Win, 1 Loss

EJ trade: Shorted at H4 Supply with trend...(R+1.7)

EU trade: Shorted at weak H4 Supply (many tests) R-0.5

intro: so these trades were from orders placed on Wednesday and Thursday, I'm only updating today as they were triggered last night so not much to say until now.

thoughts: The EU trade was a loss probably because I was shorting really at an area where there was lack of buying interest rather than true supply. The EJ trade however I believe was a better supply level for 3 reasons. Firstly price spent very little time there, secondly the strong and aggressive drop from it, both suggesting a supply/demand imbalance, thirdly this was clearly the first revisit.

summary: All in all happy with this weeks efforts, I have managed to learn some lessons (with some help, thank you John) and have a positive week in terms of P/L. Quite possibly the last week of the month for me as next week is "wedding week"!

lessons: 1. ask yourself if your level is truly supply/demand or just a pivot hi/lo. 2. hard drops/rallies from a level and price spending very little time at the level are positive factors.

prep from the week:

end of week summary:

R+0.4: 1 Win, 1 Loss

EU Trade: Shorted at H4 Supply, but wasn't a great pivot high (more counter trend bar)

GU Trade: Shorted at H4 supply, slightly better pivot high?

intro: Placed 3 sell stops this morning,  two triggered, EU and GU. EU got stopped out then went my way,  GU triggered and I took profit before but near target as didn't want to hold over night.

thoughts: just wondering whether the EU H4 supply wasn't quite as strong as the GU level, due to it not being as clear a pivot high. Happy to accept that it was just bad luck/probabilities though.

summary: Again got to say "set and forget" is  much easier psychologically. Guess one danger is wanting to polish your edge too much that it crumbles. 

lesson: 1. you got to swing the bat, to hit the ball. 2. using quality S/D (pivot high/lo) on higher time frames means higher probabilities as levels are clearer for all to see so therefore less exploritory breakouts that can take out stops. 

video: AM prep

R-2: Both Trades Stopped, Shorting at Bad Supply

EU Trade: Shorted at incorrect Supply level (Pivot high in an uptrend).

EJ Trade:  Shorted at poor Supply (Pivot high in an upswing/trend).

intro: Took 2 short trades from weak supply levels because they (the supply levels) originated in an up trend, not down trend. 

thoughts: something felt wrong/off about these trades from the start but perfectly fitted my trade plan so couldn't not take them. In all the probably hundred plus Seiden articles I've read he's never mentioned finding supply levels from down trend price action or demand levels from up trend price action but feel like I'm making a valid point here and my Monday and Tuesday "good" trades corroborate it. (I guess his articles are free so he can't give up all the knowledge he expects people to pay for).

summary: 2 losses but feels like for the greater cause. The observation above/lesson below feels like a cheap one to potentially improve my edge quite a bit. Would like to say that despite the losses like a said yesterday this "set and forget" trading is easy and this is because I'm not wrestling emotions.

lesson: Find potential demand levels in uptrend price action, find potential supply levels in downtrend price action.

video:

No Trades, Overtired

intro: No Trades, noticed I was double guessing my game plans, which I only do when I'm tired so called it a day as know even when I pick a good trade I always manage to f*ck it up. Kept thinking of that quote of Paul's "Ambiguity in a fast moving market is going to kill you"!

video:

R-2 1. Target failed to trigger. 2. Hit stop

EJ trade: Shorted at Supply but broker didn't honour my target, you can see it was hit but didn't trigger, Pissed off! Good Trade.

EU trade:  Short at longterm fresh supply R-1, had a feeling this level might be tested harshly but not really something I could prepare for on any timeframe (I checked). So nothing to moan about on this one just didn't work out. Good trade in theory.

intro: Again doing set and forget. Chose what I believe were good potential supply levels, targets and stops but broker screwed me on my exit on the EJ trade, the other hit it's stop.

thoughts: On a metaphorical level while I was at the flat today sanding the ceiling by hand and thinking what a shit job it was, I realised that yes it was a shit job in terms of effort required but it was really quite an easy job. I just kept asking myself "is this little bit as smooth as it can be"? Yes -  move on, No - keep going. Then I thought that this job, trading with a set of rules, is really quite an easy job, yes it requires effort to continue to be disciplined and patient (the shit), but then it's just the same as the sanding, "does this trade meet my requirements"? Yes - take it,  No -  keep waiting.  Which made me think of something John says "it's not easy but it's not difficult"... I guess here I'm sort of saying saying "it's shit/hardwork, but it's easy", which makes no fucking sense at all! his is much better hahaha . There was also something about the scale of the sanding that made me draw comparisons to trading. If I looked at the whole ceiling the two inches I was working seemed pointless, which is a good metaphor for how I should look at individual trades. They're just being a tiny part of a trading year.  Don't know, maybe you had to be there. ha!

summary: Pissed off but that isn't going to fix anything, going to have reduce my target and accommodate the brokers spread when setting targets. EJ trade = Good trade, bad luck. EU trade =  just a trade.

lessons: 1. accommodate the brokers spread and nearby price action when setting targets.

video:

R+2 EU Sell Stop Short

EU Trade: Shorted at long term/multiple levels of supply

intro: Got a lot on at the moment external to trading, so have decided to put my trading a little on the back burner. Still looking in the AM but following Seiden's advice of set and forget. So limit orders used then CPU turned off and checked end of day, more in the video...

thoughts: actually pretty stress free, which was nice! Also back blogging feels good too,  bit of routine again!

summary: not much to say,  trade worked. Guess I've got to decide whether to hold limit orders overnight or cancel them. 

video: keeping it simple over next few weeks

video: today's summary

March 2015 Summary: R-0.4

Deposit/Withdrawal:		0.00		Credit Facility:				0.00
Closed Trade P/L:		-8.64		Floating P/L:				0.00	Margin:			0.00
Balance:		1 245.22		Equity:				1 245.22	Free Margin:			1 245.22
Details:
Gross Profit:		56.11		Gross Loss:				64.75	Total Net Profit:			-8.64
Profit Factor:		0.87		Expected Payoff:				-0.36
Absolute Drawdown:		19.54		Maximal Drawdown:				24.78 (1.97%)	Relative Drawdown:			1.97% (24.78)
Total Trades:		24		Short Positions (won %):				22 (45.45%)	Long Positions (won %):			2 (0.00%)
Profit Trades (% of total):								10 (41.67%)	Loss trades (% of total):			14 (58.33%)
Largest		profit trade:						15.08	loss trade:			-12.48
Average		profit trade:						5.61	loss trade:			-4.63
Maximum		consecutive wins ($):						3 (22.20)	consecutive losses ($):			3 (-19.98)
Maximal		consecutive profit (count):						22.20 (3)	consecutive loss (count):			-19.98 (3)
Average		consecutive wins:						1	consecutive losses:			2

intro: from the PL chart it seems there was very little consistency this month, a sea of chop! And this I believe is the truth.

numbers: Took a massive step backward. 7 more trades this month than last, probably because I wanted in to take  more trades to practice in-trade risk management but neglected out-trade management, whether I should really be taking the trade in the first place. My win rate is up to 41% from 35% which is an improvement but my largest and average profits/losses have suffered hugely.  With only 17% difference between my average win and loss size meaning I would need a success/hit rate of 83% to turn a profit the way I was trading this month. Last month the difference between my average win/loss was 42% so only a win rate of 58% was required. The numbers are telling me I will have a much better chance of success if I let my trades run and cutting losses quickly ( like last month) rather than trying for a high hit rate.

summary: I started getting a hang of my entry fears on a Paul Wallace quote " traders are paid to manage risk, analysts are paid to make the right calls" which finally hammered home the fact that I don't need to be right I just need to manage risk. I then thought (not wrongly) that because I have been avoiding trades for so long my in-trade risk management probably needed work/ practice. So I put on a lot more trades to practice my time stop and trail stop methods but was in all honesty a little lax on the entries and the levels I took, which of course is another part risk management and one that I neglected which clearly shows in the PL curve and numbers.  Ultimately I strayed from my plan a bit this month to satisfy some other parts of me, it's a hard one to say I was wrong to do this because my intrade risk management has improved but it is a timely reminder that risk management/trading most be a holistic approach. For this reason I need to go back and tidy up and amend my written plan (get the solider obeying commands again!)

lessons: It can be seen when I was sticking to plan at beginning of month the "lessons" were clear and useful. as I fell away from my plan the lessons were just a pile of drivel trying to reinvent the wheel (plan). The following are the good ones.

• stick to plan
• You can trade the M15 chart but no lower (Seiden)
• ensure you include the most extreme parts of levels 
• trade with the trend of the time frame you're on into longer term levels (you trade momentum not value)
• I have got better at managing risk, now I need to mange my entries. 
• when shooting stars/hammers fail it will usually be a full stop out, so very hard to reduce risk and might be better to wait for a re-attack instead of trading!
• Don't trade overtired.
• On time stops exit immediately after the third bar, it's had plenty of time an extra 5 mins aren't going to do much! 
•  Stick to Seiden's entry parameters
•  when at (many) tested level of demand or supply , you should look to fade it on a smaller timeframe. (seiden)
•  trading is about managing risk so trades should be measured by the following parameters: 1. ensuring that you are only risking x% of account (did). 2.  choosing low risk, high reward entries (didn't).2.  reducing risk (trail and time stops) in trade (did). 
• S&D is better drawn around some bars not one.
• lessons: 1. waiting for data to create moves that are then tradeable is useful and time efficient. 
•  I mustn't be scared of using limit orders to get into trades.
• lessons:  1. don't put so much weight on correlations, If you only have one true entry that's the only thing you can take!   
•  Don't be scared to trade re-attacks of levels!
•  Stop questioning the coach, start following the coach.