March 2015 Summary: R-0.4

Deposit/Withdrawal:		0.00		Credit Facility:				0.00
Closed Trade P/L:		-8.64		Floating P/L:				0.00	Margin:			0.00
Balance:		1 245.22		Equity:				1 245.22	Free Margin:			1 245.22
Details:
Gross Profit:		56.11		Gross Loss:				64.75	Total Net Profit:			-8.64
Profit Factor:		0.87		Expected Payoff:				-0.36
Absolute Drawdown:		19.54		Maximal Drawdown:				24.78 (1.97%)	Relative Drawdown:			1.97% (24.78)
Total Trades:		24		Short Positions (won %):				22 (45.45%)	Long Positions (won %):			2 (0.00%)
Profit Trades (% of total):								10 (41.67%)	Loss trades (% of total):			14 (58.33%)
Largest		profit trade:						15.08	loss trade:			-12.48
Average		profit trade:						5.61	loss trade:			-4.63
Maximum		consecutive wins ($):						3 (22.20)	consecutive losses ($):			3 (-19.98)
Maximal		consecutive profit (count):						22.20 (3)	consecutive loss (count):			-19.98 (3)
Average		consecutive wins:						1	consecutive losses:			2

intro: from the PL chart it seems there was very little consistency this month, a sea of chop! And this I believe is the truth.

numbers: Took a massive step backward. 7 more trades this month than last, probably because I wanted in to take  more trades to practice in-trade risk management but neglected out-trade management, whether I should really be taking the trade in the first place. My win rate is up to 41% from 35% which is an improvement but my largest and average profits/losses have suffered hugely.  With only 17% difference between my average win and loss size meaning I would need a success/hit rate of 83% to turn a profit the way I was trading this month. Last month the difference between my average win/loss was 42% so only a win rate of 58% was required. The numbers are telling me I will have a much better chance of success if I let my trades run and cutting losses quickly ( like last month) rather than trying for a high hit rate.

summary: I started getting a hang of my entry fears on a Paul Wallace quote " traders are paid to manage risk, analysts are paid to make the right calls" which finally hammered home the fact that I don't need to be right I just need to manage risk. I then thought (not wrongly) that because I have been avoiding trades for so long my in-trade risk management probably needed work/ practice. So I put on a lot more trades to practice my time stop and trail stop methods but was in all honesty a little lax on the entries and the levels I took, which of course is another part risk management and one that I neglected which clearly shows in the PL curve and numbers.  Ultimately I strayed from my plan a bit this month to satisfy some other parts of me, it's a hard one to say I was wrong to do this because my intrade risk management has improved but it is a timely reminder that risk management/trading most be a holistic approach. For this reason I need to go back and tidy up and amend my written plan (get the solider obeying commands again!)

lessons: It can be seen when I was sticking to plan at beginning of month the "lessons" were clear and useful. as I fell away from my plan the lessons were just a pile of drivel trying to reinvent the wheel (plan). The following are the good ones.

• stick to plan
• You can trade the M15 chart but no lower (Seiden)
• ensure you include the most extreme parts of levels 
• trade with the trend of the time frame you're on into longer term levels (you trade momentum not value)
• I have got better at managing risk, now I need to mange my entries. 
• when shooting stars/hammers fail it will usually be a full stop out, so very hard to reduce risk and might be better to wait for a re-attack instead of trading!
• Don't trade overtired.
• On time stops exit immediately after the third bar, it's had plenty of time an extra 5 mins aren't going to do much! 
•  Stick to Seiden's entry parameters
•  when at (many) tested level of demand or supply , you should look to fade it on a smaller timeframe. (seiden)
•  trading is about managing risk so trades should be measured by the following parameters: 1. ensuring that you are only risking x% of account (did). 2.  choosing low risk, high reward entries (didn't).2.  reducing risk (trail and time stops) in trade (did). 
• S&D is better drawn around some bars not one.
• lessons: 1. waiting for data to create moves that are then tradeable is useful and time efficient. 
•  I mustn't be scared of using limit orders to get into trades.
• lessons:  1. don't put so much weight on correlations, If you only have one true entry that's the only thing you can take!   
•  Don't be scared to trade re-attacks of levels!
•  Stop questioning the coach, start following the coach.