Monday 8 August 2016

Speculation or Gambling?

Image result for gambling

An internal debate I often have with myself is; is trading gambling or speculating? and isn't "speculating" gambling anyway?

my definitions


I define gambling as an action that relies entirely on luck, akin to betting on a horse because you like it's name or the colours its jockey wears, a coin toss.

While I define speculating as an action that is based in preparation and risk management. Knowing where the horse is running, on what surface, who the trainer is and sizing the potential bet in relation to the odds offered. Many bets will be prepared but few will be placed, as midway through the prep a horse maybe shown to have no edge (a good flats horse may be useless on jumps). This in theory leads to an educated guess that still requires a bit of luck, similar to a hand of poker.

So to answer my initial question; yes speculating is gambling, but it is gambling (like any business) with a defined risk, an edge. You're trying to be the casino.

Image result for risk

All this has lead to a further thought...

two aspects of speculation


To carry on with the metaphor, in trading I see the setup as the horse; and the first aspect of successful speculation is defining whether "it" is on the right surface for it to be effective (1) before entering

However in trading we have a second aspect, that being the luxury of (2) in bet management; being able to close a bet early or add to it late. The latter of which is missing from my plan (as mentioned here). This is a void that I urgently need to fill to help improve my results. 

summary


Ultimately in any form of gambling or speculating there will always be risk. To me however speculating requires that you know when you have an edge, when your edge is fading and as importantly when it is strengthening.

Personally, I know what my edge looks like when it's failing (before it hits my stop), so I can cut my losers early but I do not know what it looks like when it is succeeding (before it hits my target), to ensure it is held or even added to. My plan to combat this is to examine the largest MFE of my losing trades. This should hopefully act as a good basic benchmark/line in the sand/distinguishing factor between a successful and fruitless endeavour. 

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