MOTR Trades 5&6 DHM R-1.4

intro

So last Friday I got long the AUD by shorting the GBPAUD and buying the AUDUSD. Now the entries were fine but the management could have been better, hence DHM "dickhead management".

trades

One went my way while the other hovered around breakeven. I trailed my stop to 70% on both of them as my plan dictates, but I failed to note on Monday evening that there was an RBA governor speech due overnight... This would have been the perfect time to kill the trades for more or less breakeven, instead both hit their 70% stops for a total loss of R-1.4.

lesson

My strategy is based on getting a "technical edge", this is fine but the issue is, one cannot predict the outcome of data or speeches. And so when such an event approaches my edge losses it potency until it comes to a point where it has no predictive power at all. At this point my trade turns from a calculated risk to a gamble and is where it should be closed. It could be argued that if I keep taking bets with great returns I should win, that's what most punters do. And guess what, it's the bookies making a business out of it. It is often thought that casinos also play the long game, and they do, but remember they have the odds, even if small on there side in every game. Here I started off as a trader then turned into a punter.

MOTR trade 5 

GBPAUD was in MOTR S (strong selling) and I took a bearish pin at W1 supply as an entry. 

MOTR trade 6 

AUDUSD was in MOTR B (strong buying), I took a bullish pin at W1 demand as an entry. 

Tharp Continued: Overcoming My Challenges

copyright K1 Dynamite hopefully I can channel my inner Fedor (right)

recap 

This is the third post in my Van Tharp series. Here are the links to posts 1 and 2.  On completing the Tharp Trader Test I was sent a personalised report stating my three strengths and three challenges. The challenges I face will be the focus here. Please forgive me if this turns into a rather lengthy post it's really meant more for my records and trading development...

my challenges

1. Need for External Confirmation: of ideas, your systems and beliefs, which can be detrimental to becoming a successful trader. You need inner confidence to trade consistently successfully. Read the Article “What Is Involved in Peak Performance Trading?”
2. New Ideas:  to apply to trading systems that are already working can screw things up.  Understanding the purpose of trading systems and their role in pulling money out of the markets. Read the Article “Paradigm Shifts for Trading Success”
3. Needing Excitement: Good trading tends to be boring. It is imperative that you have an outlet other than trading; excitement in trading is most often very expensive. Complete the “Compulsive Trader Test” 

challenge 1: peak performance trading

According to Tharp this requires each trader to have their own business plan.  I actually have worked on one with my coach Paul, which he calls a Strategic Business Plan.  Tharp recommends each plan has the following items.

• Your Vision, commitment is key to success, your vision is your dream life, write this out in detail, what are the "whys" in your life, this give real motivation, you'll know you have it right when you're so excited you feel you must do something right now ( written but will need a revisit as I haven't got that urgency yet!)
•  Your Purpose. Written
• Your Objectives. Written 
• Assessment of Strengths and Weaknesses, based on real trading logs: Strengths: 1. Money management, 2. risk management, 3. good record keeping 4. Organized TTP and SBP written. Weaknesses:  Fear Based Trading: 1. Cutting winners early with discretionary exits out of fear instead of TTP exits (might need faster TSL method than fractals like 3 bar stop). 2. Cutting winners early by BE trailing too quickly out of reversal fear (fixed to 70% stop).  3. being lazy, not respecting spread (respect the spread! dickhead) 4. taking shit candle patterns too "creative" (write exact rules)  5. Not trading off S/D (improving now only using W1 and MN levels) 5. Buying high , selling low. (improving now only using W1 and MN levels)
• Thorough assessment of big picture of fundamentals. yes through STAM
• complete understanding of your beliefs about the market. Working on with Tharp exercise
• How to get empowering beliefs and mental states behind you.
• Documentation of system research, determining their effectiveness, no
• Procedures for maintaining discipline, yes but needs above work
• budget and cash flow, yes
• systems for back office record keeping. yes but needs time set aside
• worst case contingency,  yes
• System 1 compatible with big pic, yes
• System 2 also compatible with big pic, no
• System 3 counter big pic yes

challenge 2: paradigm shifts for trading success

Tharp says there are 4 major shifts to make they are...

1. Trading success has very little to do with what’s outside of you, Instead, you must determine who you are and what your objectives are. Once you have done that, you can design a trading system that fits you. Q Who are you and who do you choose to be? 
2. There is no Holy Grail in the markets outside of you. But there is a Holy Grail and that comes from developing a trading system that fits you. When you do this you can do much more than outperform the majority of market players. ...economists are beginning to say perhaps the markets are not efficient. And, perhaps by studying human frailties, one can begin to predict how the markets are not efficient. The field of behavioural finance has been born. Applying it means working on yourself to make sure you don’t have these inefficiencies. 
3. You don’t have to predict the market to make money. Instead, making money comes from controlling your exits. The golden rule of trading is “Let your profits run and cut your losses short.” What does that have to do with prediction? Absolutely nothing. Instead, it has everything to do with getting out of the markets using a systematic plan. Enough said! 
4. You don’t have to be right to make money. Instead, you must understand R-multiples, expectancy and opportunity.I understand this so not going into this...
5. Big money does not come from any of the factors that most investors and traders focus their attention upon. Instead, big money comes from having a position sizing strategy that is
   designed to meet your objectives. I understand this so not going into this...

How to Make Your Own Paradigm Shifts

copyright Van Tharp Institute

1. Examine who you are and what you are doing from multiple perspectives. your perspective, another involved person’s perspective, and the perspective of an outside observer watching what is going on during the event. If you were to continually observe yourself from perspectives two and three, then it would not take long at all to jump out of the box. A simple exercise you might do is to simply replay each day at the end of the day from the perspective of an outside observer. Amazing changes will occur in you when you do so.
2.  Examine your beliefs. Your beliefs might form a set of concentric circles. inner most are the ones you know are true. then think are true, might be true. then ones you have real doubts about... Tharp says: I think the beliefs that are probably the most damaging are the beliefs in the inner circle—those we know to be true. Spend time questioning those beliefs and you’ll begin to make major paradigm shifts. Try questioning one or two of your major assumptions about life that you know are true. What would life be like if those assumptions were not true? Questioning of this sort is what would be most profitable and evolutionary for most people.
3.  Notice your projections. Operate as if the world is a mirror to your own mind, then you will really begin to find out what your boxes are. And when you know where a box is, it is a simple step to get out of the box and make a paradigm shift.
4. Keep a daily journal of your emotions and experiences. Then read regularly in order to notice your paradigm shirts
5.  Meditate regularly. Simply pay attention to your breathing for twenty minutes. Think of breathing in as “inspiration,” for it very well may be that.

These five steps should help you to make immense paradigm shifts on a regular basis. Plan to do it for the next 30 days.

challenge 3: the compulsive trader

Tharp says: compulsiveness is perhaps the most serious of all trading problems. Gamblers Anonymous has recognized that for a compulsive gamblers, stocks, options and commodities are definitely gambling. 

There is then a set 20 questions based on a GA survey to see how compulsive you are. I scored a 6 out of 20. Despite being simple "yes/no" answers some questions I found surprisingly difficult, on these grey area ones I sided with a "yes".

Accordingly compulsive gamblers answer "yes" to seven or more questions. Most speculators will answer yes to one or two of these questions, while if you answer "yes" to six or more then you probably are not a successful trader (which I'm not). If you answer yes to 7 or more you have a problem. If you answer yes to 12 or more you are definitely compulsive about your trading.

what is a compulsive trader

Tharp says: Most people are at some level compulsive. Compulsive traders get a certain sense of "being alive" that comes only when they gamble or trade. They deny they have a problem.  Their lives are falling apart around them,  but they don't feel they have a problem. If you answered yes to 12 or more questions (even if it's only 5 or more) you might be moving in that direction. A compulsive trader will have lost much of the money they originally had for trading.

3 phases of a compulsive trader

1. short winning phase:  during which many compulsive traders develop elaborate systems for winning and tend to become very skilful of carrying them out.
2. the losing phase: once consumed by the action of trading, you begin to make mistakes and starts the losing phase. The compulsive trader,however, does not focus on the losses, but on getting his money back.
3. desperation phase: all the assets are gone. all sources of credit are gone but the compulsive trader is driven to continue maybe even doing illegal things.

dealing with compulsiveness

Tharp recommends his Peak Performance Course, of course he does. But there is a good introduction above from the Peak Performance Trading article... He says you need to

1. learn how to control your mental state, your urge for action. (again some good ideas are above in challenge 2)
2. learn to break the link of trading behaviour  that is set into action by environmental cues. So the second step involves finding all the cues that trigger compulsiveness and linking them to more appropriate behaviour, each cue must be found and neutralised (look to challenge 2 ideas)
3. you need to found outlets for your need for excitement (see challenge 2)
4. recognise that you will not win as long as you are compulsive about your investing. Since action is your primary motivation for investing or speculating , once you stop craving the action,  you may not want to do what it takes to be successful.  

My notes: I found the section quite disturbing. I scored a 6 on the test so had a mini melt down, thinking I was gambler and was ruining my family's life, I even called the wife at work to make sure I wasn't making her life hell. ha! 

I feel here I'm in catch 22. I love to worry and normally when something gets under my skin I break it down, but by doing that here I worry that I might be in denial as Tharp mentions above. arhhh!

Ultimately  I've decided I'm taking this as precautionary warning. In the danger of sounding in denial, I think I have some compulsive traits but I don't think I am very compulsive in the usual connotations. This is mainly because my coach who knows me well has classified me a FBT (fear based trader) as I'm extremely risk averse. So much so that I still refuse to trade real money until a turn a paper profit (7 years in). If anything I think I might be compulsive in my risk averseness! For instance often breaking trade plan rules to take discretionary exits or trailing stops too tight to reduce risk.

Tharp Continued: Maxing My Strengths

This is the first follow up to my post Tharp Trader Test.

recap

After completing the Tharp questionnaire I was sent a personal report. I came up as "Facilitative Trader", which according to Tharp means that of the 3 core trading qualities above I have 1&3 but will need to work on 2. Making decisions based on logic and analysis.

The report starts by recommending 3 articles to ensure that I am making the most of my strengths, these are what this post will cover.

strengths

1. Energy and Creativity: not afraid to try new ideas, good at coming up with new ideas. Creativity best applied to systems ideas, need to understand all that’s required in a trading system...Read the Article “What Is a Trading System?”
2. Ability to Pull the Trigger: don't require extensive back/live testing to execute your trading ideas.  I need to understand that my ideas really are beliefs, read the article. Read the Article “Your Beliefs About Trading”
3. Quickly Develop Trading Ideas: Your ideas will continue to come easily and naturally if you remain in the flow of the markets. To see what that means, read the following article. Read the Article “The Flow of the Markets”

strength 1: working on my trading system

This was quite a long article, I will try and keep things as brief as possible but initially Tharp talks about Robert Kiyosaki's Cash Flow Quadrant. This I found very interesting and would like to spend a little time on.

defining self

1. Employees: run systems created by businesses but often don't understand that they're even doing so. They are akin to the investor who wants to be told how to do everything.
2. Self Employed (ME): are motivated by control and doing it right. Cannot see the system because they are so much a part of it, the more they work the more tired they get. Stuck in all the details, have a strong tendency to want to "complexify" things, always looking for perfection believing that the perfect system must be complex. They will likely have a discretionary system that is constantly being changed.
3. Business Owner: Creates simple systems to run the business then delegates. Usually does very well in the trading arena, would hire someone to run the system at a much lower wage.
4. The Investor: Looks for returns of 25%+ and no work. Kiyosaki says rich people typically derive 70% of there income from investments and 30% or less from wages.

This alone has been an eye opener for me. I have already been...

• Adding more trade plan rules(systems), like a "business owner", to get me further out of the in-trade decision making process and hopefully a little more like a "system following employee".
• Despite having to run the system, as I have no staff, ha! I'm trying to take a step back to remove the need to be in control by putting surplus energy into other areas, ie blogging.
• To try and avoid the desire to "tweak" I have a set a time of day that I can look for trades.

trading strategy essentials

Tharp then goes on to describe exactly what a Trading Strategy should contain, that being...

1. A market filter, 2. Setup conditions,3. Entry signal, 4. Worst case Stop Loss. 5 Re-entry when appropriate. 6. Profit taking exits. 7. A position size algorithm 8. Multiple systems for different market conditions

The fact that I have nothing to do here is entirely thanks my coach Paul.

business plan essentials

The next thing Tharp talks about is what you need in your business plan...

1. Executive Summary, 2. Business Description: mission, history, services(growth of cap and risk control), operations, equipment needed, location, organization and management of employees.(I have but needs adding to). 3. Industry Overview and Competition: needs work on! 4. Self Knowledge 5. Trade Plan 6. Your Trading Edges: self explanatory (I have but needs adding to). 7. Financial Information 8. Worst case Contingency Plan.

developing a system

Tharp then offers some tips on developing a systems...

1. Defining who you are. 2. Objectives: define what you want the system to achieve 3. Calibration: what are your performance bench marks? what are your criteria for knowing it is working? how will you make decisions when your criteria are met? 4. Tips: Work out how you will make decisions ahead of time there should be a mechanism and a range of contingencies (got). we want robust simple plans that can cover a wide range of conditions.

strength 2: understanding my beliefs about trading

Tharp says "you do not trade the markets- no one does... what your really trade are your beliefs about the market... (and) your ability to so is tempered by your beliefs about yourself". So you trade your beliefs but your beliefs can screw you, great!

belief exercise

1. Write down your beliefs about yourself, its okay if this is difficult, just start. 
2. continue this exercise each time you open, manage or close a trade.
3. keep this up until you 100+ statements about yourself.

strength 3: the flow of the markets

Paraphrasing from Tharp: "The market is like a river. The river just is, no matter how much you struggle, it moves downstream and nothing you do can change that. Your struggle "is the need to be right", to chose the right trend, chose the right turning point, chose the right SL, chose the right profit target. But these psychological needs obscure the obvious solution: Letting go. The market is not going against you personally, the market is simply moving. The market isn't the problem, the" trader's struggle" with the market is. When you realise the problem stems from you, then the solution becomes obvious, just relax and flow with the river". 

This a lovely metaphor that more than hints that we should be happy to concede. I don't disagree with this however I would say sometimes it is hard to know whether you are conceding out of fear, or out of "respect for flow". 

It therefore stands to reason you need clear rules/guides to identify "fighting flow" from a trade that's still valid. I'm happy but will revisit my rules that tell me what the trend is and when a trade has failed but I need to work on my rule that tells me when a trade has topped. These would provide a good indicator to when I am fighting the market.

Hold or Fold

copyright FT Weekend Magazine

intro

Just read an article by Tim Harford in the FT magazine titled "The odds are you won't know when to quit". You can read it here.

He talks a lot about "loss aversion" which I had always thought lead to a lack of participation in order to avoid losing, think I got that from a Curtis Faith book. Where as Harford says "it can lead us to cling on pig headedly to bad decisions because we hate to stop playing when we're behind". Meaning we actually hang on to loss, he states the TV show Deal or No Deal as a good example.

my trading worries

The article struck a chord with me, not due to the outcome of individual trades but more to do with trading as a profession.  I often think "when if ever is trading as a career going to happen for me? And how am I going to know if I should throw the towel in?"

options

Harford saw 3 options.

1. "look resolutely away from sunk costs and towards future prospects". I feel this is verging on gambler's hope.

2. "persevere flexibly rather than stubborn", which he likens to having to choose between 2 evils.

and his favourite...

3. "view decisions as experiments... viewing a decision as an experiment gives a useful perspective because experiments are always designed to teach us something. We can keep asking: what have I learnt? And am I still learning? If a new project or activity keeps teaching us new things, it is probably worth continuing - even if the lessons are sometimes painful". I see his point and will be working "what have I learnt" into my Strategic Business Plan as a guide to whether I should be persisting in these endeavours. 

Maintaining My Edge

copyright roblox

intro

Recently I posted a GBPUSD short I exited prior to NFP, I had the option to tighten and lighten but with the pending volatility and the trade just nudging break even it just didn't seem worth the risk/gamble.

going deeper

Now what is interesting is that all the more experienced traders I spoke to were fine with me killing the trade but first recommended keeping it. Kevin of Forexiation was particularly insightful. He treats "major news as a "50/50"... (If) I have a trade open just before a news event and can win a reward of +1R or over at the current price, then I'll usually stay in it, mathematically, if you have a 50% chance of winning anything over 1R reward, it's a good bet... If I only stand to win a reward of less than 1R, then I might close the trade or move my SL to breakeven. (while if I am already a good way to my target, 75%ish) I would probably... close the trade before the news as I have a 50% chance of winning (25%), or 50% chance of losing (75%)."

Now getting back to topic, in the lead up to making this decision I had experienced a bit of what I shall call "gambler's hope" which caused me some concern. What I mean by this was "ooooh, that data might really hurt my trade!... but maybe the data will push the trade my way?"

I'm not beating myself up, hope is not in itself awful, but it is an emotion and I find when I'm emotional it is far harder to be objective. Objectively speaking the trade may still have been valid as my trading friends suggested, however because I was emotional I was unable to see the truth, that it was a 50/50 event and act accordingly. This got me thinking...

what other ways can I be losing my edge?

This lead me to thinking about what my coach, Paul Wallace teaches. The 4Ms, Method, Money, Markets and Myself. He explains that the sweet spot is found when you get all these plates spinning. It occurred to me that if these are the areas to find an edge they will also be the places in which they are lost and should be accounted for in my tactical trading plan.

money

...and shall we say risk management: If we are exceeding either one of our money or risk management principles we are very easily going to lose our edge!
TTP Action: This is already accounted for in the TTP, however if for some reason this is incorrect, I need to close trade immediately. Trying to correct an oversized position and maintain exits that are technically legitimate is very difficult.

method

Assuming that your method provides an edge on the market, it stands to reason if you are not following it, or pushing its principles you not working your edge.
TTP Action: Again already accounted for in the TTP, however if for some reason this is incorrect, I need to close trade immediately. I'm not trading my edge so I can't learn anything from the results as I have nothing to compare them to.

markets

Perhaps a little harder to define. However if we assume you are respecting high and low season (leave in May and stay away) and that you have a some kind of filter to identify the best markets to invest your capital... If you find yourself trading in disregard to either of these your edge will certainly suffer.
TTP Actions: Again already accounted for in the TTP, however if for some reason this is incorrect I have 2 options. 1. If in low season I find myself trailing my stop, swap to target. 2. If however I find that I am trading a market/pair that does not meet my filter parameters, close immediately.

myself

Speaking to some experienced traders they suggested I watch out for "Greed, fear, distraction. tiredness, boredom over trading ,focussing purely on the trade set up, not the big picture, overconfidence and revenge trading " to me these are all examples of a loss of objectivity, losing objectivity will dull our edge.
TTP Action: This has not yet been accounted for in my TTP and I wish to add... Once you start to feel emotions, try to recover objectivity by thinking of the trade in odds/probabilities, if this can not be achieved shortly after your acknowledgement then you should close the trade immediately.

GBPAUD Short R-1 DHT

Before I start I just want to clarify DHT stands for "Dick Head Trade".  I'm sure you can now tell the direction in which this post is heading...

On doing my weekly prep I found GBPAUD to be in MOTR S (strong selling), experiencing a deep pullback to W1 supply and had printed a smallish pin (my least favourite) which I choose to sell,  all technically sound.

However I hadn't checked the data for the week and so ended up buying AUD about 2 hours before an RBA interest announcement,  hence "Dick Head".

P/L: R-1.0     Exe: 1     Per:1

R+0.1 GBPUSD Short

So earlier in the week I found that the GU was in MOTR S (a nice down trend) and had experienced a deep pullback to a W1 supply level, I waited for a entry signal, which turned out to be a Bear EP and took a short with a 70% stop as the pattern was quite large.

Perhaps if the trade had gone more in my favour by Friday morning I would have held through NFPs. But I mentioned to Paul and Reg that I was feeling a bit of "hope" and they noted that usually means you've lost your edge, which certainly matched the inner voice I was trying to silence.

Both suggested tightening the SL and PT and lightening up. But as I was already going for quite a small target of 261.8 it didn't really seem worth the risk.  Perhaps if 423.6 legitimately had a chance of being reached I would have felt differently but there were a lot of steps in the way. So I closed the position for break even Friday morning.

P/L:R+0.1    Exe:4     Per:3

Tharp Trader Test

Copyright © 2016 Van Tharp Institute for Trading Education. All rights reserved. 

So my coach suggested that my fellow students and I do the Tharp Trader Test. If you're interested you can take it yourself for free here.

I thoroughly recommend it, I have only just received my personalised report but am already gleaning useful information from it. Not only that but I am being pointed to follow up material to help correct the areas I need work in.

According to Tharp there are 3 Core Trader Qualities to have...

Copyright © 2016 Van Tharp Institute for Trading Education. All rights reserved. 

I came up as a Facilitative Trader and accordingly have qualities 1 and 3,  so will need work on 2, "Making decisions based on logic and analysis".

In honesty this blog works much like my personal trade journal/diary, so what follows is more for my records. However you're welcome to read on if you desire. My immediate task will be reading the suggested articles for each "strength" and "challenge" Tharp has listed.  I will likely write an additional post in the future with what I garner from the lessons.

NB: Much of what follows are Tharp's own words, these are indicated in italics and are only reproduced as an aid for my learning from the personal report I received from The Van Tharp Institute.

My strengths according to Tharp are...

• Strength #1 – Energy and Creativity : I'm " not afraid to try new ideas and are good at coming up with new ideas." but this creativity is "best applied to systems ideas that you will be interested in testing and trying." so I "need to understand all that’s required in a trading system. Read the Article “What Is a Trading System?”
• Strength #2 – Ability to Pull the Trigger I "do not require extensive backtesting or live testing to execute your trading ideas  and my  "courage to start working them right away is useful to a trader" but i need to understand that my "ideas really are beliefs and how that distinction is critically important, read the following article. Read the Article “Your Beliefs About Trading”
• Strength #3 – Quickly Develop Trading Ideas I" have the ability to come up with tradable ideas very quickly" and "this will seem quite easy for you"  but I need to "remain in the flow of the markets. To see what that means, read the following article. Read the Article “The Flow of the Markets”

While my weaknesses are...

• Challenge #1 – Need for External Confirmation I "may feel a need to get external confirmation of your ideas, your systems and beliefs, which can be detrimental to becoming a successful trader." I need to "Learn how to develop the inner confidence and the other requirements needed to trade consistently successfully or what I call “Peak Performance Trading”. Read the Article “What Is Involved in Peak Performance Trading?” 
• Challenge #2 – New Ideas I am  "always coming up with new ideas that you want to apply to trading systems that are already working and can subsequently screw things up". and I "could find it hard to trade it because of mistakes." I need to  "Understanding the purpose of trading systems and their role in pulling money out of the markets is the basis for the following article. Read the Article “Paradigm Shifts for Trading Success” 
• Challenge #3 – Needing Excitement  I need to understand that "Good trading tends to be boring but you have a need for external excitement." and  "It is imperative that you have an outlet for this excitement; otherwise, you will bring it into your trading. Rather than profitable, excitement in trading is most often very expensive. Complete the “Compulsive Trader Test” 

R+2.9 GBPCHF Short

Hi all, sorry for my "Trade Journal" radio silence. As mentioned in my last post I had a bit of a rough time in March, taking 14 losses in a row. The lowest Timeframe I'm trading at the mo is D1 to try and avoid "over-thinking / over-analysis". I will get smaller again but for now want to keep my mind clear and I find that easier by not looking at the charts all day.

This is my first trade back. Not perfect, used a 100% stop instead of a 60% so I could limit risk should it go against me, so some fear in there from the start. Also got very twitchy as price approached my target and ended up taking a 1:2.5 instead of the planned 1:3 target. I did add on the Ross Hook which helped bring the overall return to R+2.9 on this GBPCHF trade.

Hopefully I can work on my execution next time.

What's been going on...

intro

Wow it's has been a long time since I last posted. In all honesty I've been having a rough time with my trading and I sort of fell out of the habit of keeping up with the blog. This was partly due to the "bad time" but also because I'm a member of a private group on facebook run by my coach which has in some ways replaced my blogging.

what happened

Well I had 14 losses in a row and that really sapped my energy and enthusiasm. They were okay trades, my coach had a look at them and basically said they were just bad luck. But in all honesty that didn't really help. I managed to reduce my risk on all of them so despite risking 1% per trade I was probably down around 8% by the end, this however triggered my 8% drawdown rule to stop and take stock. Which is what I did.

What I found was that I was often getting in at the end of moves, selling low and buying high. The reason for this was partly to do with the method I have been taught, it's all about getting alignment over multiple time frames but obviously by the time that happens the market can be quite overextended. I also found I was missing great moves because the filter method was a little twitchy. Id' often find a nice trend experiencing a deep pullback but would then be unable to trade it because the filter indicated the multiple timeframes were no longer in alignment. These often worked as predicted which was quite frustrating.

going forward

This is absolutely not blaming someone else for my errors, I wasn't trading the method as well as the person who created it. For example there were certain trades I should have avoided due to geopolitical reasons which I missed. This however pointed out that I'm actually not very good at predicting geopolitical events, ha! And so the dreaded change of method felt necessary so that I could avoid needing to rely on skills I don't really have, while also cutting out the frustrating trades of selling low/buying high, or simply missing moves that I thought were valid because the method discounted them.

In fact when it came down to it I haven't really changed the method, instead I've made it longer term to filter out some the geopolitical noise and keep me in on the deep pullbacks. My plan is to try and improve this skill over the course of the year, but I need my trading to provide an income now so filtering it out for the time being seemed the only viable option.

If you got through to the end of the post, thanks reading! I've got a couple trades/orders in the market at the moment and I will try put these up sometime soon.