MOTR Trades 5&6 DHM R-1.4

intro

So last Friday I got long the AUD by shorting the GBPAUD and buying the AUDUSD. Now the entries were fine but the management could have been better, hence DHM "dickhead management".

trades

One went my way while the other hovered around breakeven. I trailed my stop to 70% on both of them as my plan dictates, but I failed to note on Monday evening that there was an RBA governor speech due overnight... This would have been the perfect time to kill the trades for more or less breakeven, instead both hit their 70% stops for a total loss of R-1.4.

lesson

My strategy is based on getting a "technical edge", this is fine but the issue is, one cannot predict the outcome of data or speeches. And so when such an event approaches my edge losses it potency until it comes to a point where it has no predictive power at all. At this point my trade turns from a calculated risk to a gamble and is where it should be closed. It could be argued that if I keep taking bets with great returns I should win, that's what most punters do. And guess what, it's the bookies making a business out of it. It is often thought that casinos also play the long game, and they do, but remember they have the odds, even if small on there side in every game. Here I started off as a trader then turned into a punter.

MOTR trade 5 

GBPAUD was in MOTR S (strong selling) and I took a bearish pin at W1 supply as an entry. 

MOTR trade 6 

AUDUSD was in MOTR B (strong buying), I took a bullish pin at W1 demand as an entry.