R+0.4: 1 Win

EU trade: Shorted downtrend at M15 supply,  exit at M15 demand

intro: just bonkers outside of trading at the mo. One trade around lunch time, saw this nice rally into fresh supply so took a short.

thoughts: Would have been nice to hold for second target, something I need to work on! Guess I could have continued trailing my stop or taken partial targets.

summary: Nice to be back on better form. Trading more on plan than I have been some of this month and seemed to be rewarded for it... but plan definitely needs more going over and ironing out.

lessons: stick to plan

Chasing Price

Monday and Tuesday and possibly last week  can be summed up by an underlying, leaning towards chasing price rather than waiting for it. This is likely due to my not having read my method for a long time while continuing to study Seiden articles which have got me a bit "method swappy".

Will likely take tomorrow off and clear head then come back.

R-0.2: 2 Losses

EJ trade: after new low close on M30 chart, drilled down to M5 to short pivot high,  exit time stop (R-0.2)

GU trade: when price returned to M30 supply, shorted pivot high, exit time stop (R+0.03)

Missed EU trade: because hadn't labelled extremes see below

intro: woke more tired than I thought I would annoyingly. Did prep keeping it simple, 2 levels on each time frame then waited for them to trigger.  First trade was on the EJ m5 chart experimenting with this sort of momentum play I've been spotting. Second trade more a classic trade of mine, short at supply on GU.

thoughts: NA

summary: had I traded 1:1 I would have got that, but I went for more and ended up break even.  

lessons: quite tired so going to take the following with a pinch of salt.  1.  ensure you're using the more extreme parts of levels as you missed a couple of good trades on the EU and EJ because you used more middling areas which then looked as if they had been tested several times. 2. trade with the trend of the time frame you're on into longer term levels (you trade momentum not value)

videos:

R-0.2: 1 Loss, 1 Win, 1 Break even

EJ trade 1: Shorted shooting star (that I hate) at supply got full stopped, didn't correlate with EU or GU (R-0.1)

EJ trade 2:  Short with downtrend, at supply into demand (R+0.8)

EU trade:  (R0) shorted with down trend at supply, exit on time stop

Potential M5 trend trading strategy:

Observation: not really trading the best H4 level...

intro: too blood wound up with the missus to write this objectively. (She buys a flat then I have to drop everything to look after it, because I work at home. Either way she clearly thinks that what she has to do is far more important than what have to do, grrrr). More tomorrow...

intro 2.1: Price was hovering between old supply and demand levels on all pairs this morning (Friday), so my idea was to wait for price to (probably) rally (as the long term trend was down) into a fresh and longer-term level of supply and take a high probability short there. I took three trades, one loss, one win, one break even.

thoughts: My first trade was on the EJ at an M30/H4 supply level but the trigger was a shooting star (which often punish me) and the other pairs (EU and GU) were nowhere near supply levels, so little correlation. This trade took me out at my full stop loss and there was truly no way I could have reduced risk with the exception of not having taken the trade in the first place. My second 2 trades were on the EJ and EU,  no shooting stars present and both setup at the same time (so correlated),  one worked the other faded away. The most interesting thing about today was a trend I spotted and trades that fitted on it  that started on the M30 charts. M30 price was initially ranging but after an M30 bar closed solidly above this range (new high close), trading pull-backs on the M5 chart in the direction of the M30 close would have been very fruitful, see above.    

summary: Ultimately I think I've been putting a little too much emphasis on entering trades to manage risk the last couple of days, this thought started and rightly so a couple of weeks ago because I knew I needed to practice managing in-trade risk (working time and trailing stops correctly). However I've done that now and I need to go back to a more complete method, namely I need to be more "picky"/ mechanical/"checklisty" on my entries AND manage in-trade risk correctly.  Today for example the M5 trades would have been great , but some of the H4 levels I was looking at were fundamentally flawed because they had such high wave wicks.  It would have been better to wait for a surer / fresher level before looking to short (see pic above).

lessons: 1. I have got better at managing risk, now I need to mange my entries. 2. when shooting stars/hammers fail it will usually be a full stop out, so very hard to reduce risk and might be better to wait for a re-attack instead of trading! 3. M5 becomes tradeable on new high or low low close on M30 = trend.

prep:

trading day:

No Trades: Double Guessing Self

EU M5 trade missed:

GU M30 trade missed:

intro: terrible nights sleep (if any) as aggravated an old shoulder injury.  Got up did prep but didn't act on any of it, this created some self loathing so calling it a day early going to get some rest and try and get this shoulder sorted somehow.  Hopefully will get a couple of trades on tomorrow at solid S/D levels and manage the risk correctly.

lessons: 1. M5 levels are tradable provided long term S/D is far enough away to warrant a healthy target. 2. Don't trade overtired.


trading day...

R-0.7: 2 Losses

EU trade: Short with long term trend down at H4 supply , but supply level was old.

EJ trade: Short with long term trend down at H4 supply , but supply level was old.

intro: Ultimately was thinking of not trading today as had a busy day and FOMC this evening meant price might be congested.  However ultimately I want to trade and get my experience of managing risk up.  Not the best trades off old levels of supply with demand beneath but the best of a bad situation.  I could either short with the long term trend down at a longer term supply level, or buy counter trend at an old level of short term demand. So I stand by my trades.

thoughts: managed risk better today trailing first , but because price had made a decent pivot high on the M5 , and ultimately exiting on a time stop after 3 bars of no progression.  However I should have got at the end of the bar and not waited 5 mins after.

summary: Made the best of what the market offered me, these were not trades I would normally take but building experience feel most important at the moment as I need to get my trading working soon.

lessons: 1. On time stops exit immediately after the third bar, it's had plenty of time an extra 5 mins aren't going to do much! 2.  Stick to Seiden's entry parameters

today's trading:

R+0.5: 2 Break Even

EU trade: issue trailed stop too quickly meant early stop out and missing target.

EJ trade: issue trailed stop too quickly meant early stop out and missing target.

GU missed trades: a strong down trend started and my initally thought was to short rallies , but I didn't really have a strong mechanical game plan to profit it from it. Looks like shorting M30 rallies with an M5 pivot high trailing stop would have worked...

intro: Price in down trend so looking to short.  Price returned to H4 supply on both the EU and EJ for the second time which is not ideal but because the rallies were steep with no pullbacks and the RRR was approx 2:1 I entered short. However I trailed my stops too quickly and missed my targets on both.

thoughts: Price then revisted H4 supply for a third time but by this time I felt supply was fading so my plan was to get long on a pullback to demand on a smaller time frame (M30), this happened (see above navy blue rectangles) but I missed the trades as I was preoccupied. Also a nice trend down started on the GU and my plan was to short rallies but didn't really have a game plan to profit from my observation.

summary: A good read scuppered by trailing stop too tightly and not devising a game plan on the GU.

lessons: 1.implement the momentum/time stop first. 2. Use the trail stop  only on pivot highs/lows that move against trend. 3. In a trending market trade the pivot highs/lows on the M30 and use the M5 trail stop method.

today's trading...

R-0.6: 2 Losses

EU trades: Shorts at supply in downtrend, issue =  old level meant sell orders all filled.

EU trade missed: should have pre-empted old supply level failing and got in on a demand level on a smaller timeframe.

into: Poor entries, good money management.

thoughts: Recognized that the level of supply I was trading was old but doggedly took trades almost solely to practice managing risk. While missing the best trade that I had recently read about in a Seiden article.

summary: Writing a bit about this in an unpublished post on risk. Crap entry, ultimately there's more than one way to manage risk.

lessons: 1. when at (many) tested level of demand or supply , you should look to fade it on a smaller timeframe. 2. trading is about managing risk so trades should be measured by the following parameters: 1. ensuring that you are only risking x% of account (did). 2.  reducing risk (trail and time stops) in trade (did). 3.  choosing low risk, high reward entries (didn't).

morning prep:

in session trades:

R+0.2: 2 Losses, 1 Win

EJ trade: problems started here with incorrect trail stop method.

EU trade: problems continued here from EJ fear of "loss of momentum" overflow.

GU trade: correct trail method,  could've held longer but happy with breakeven for day given busy afternoon.

intro: Last night I got very overexcited thinking about managing risk and started writing a post on it.  One new method I thought of was tracking trend bars highs or lows with trade as a trailing stop method.  I implemented this on the EJ trade, it got stopped out early, made me doubt momentum in the EU trade because of the high correlation between the EU and EJ, which made me exit the EU discretionary. However I managed to hold the GU and use the correct M5 pivot high trail method and clawed back into the black.

thoughts: NA

summary: All started with using the incorrect trail stop method, but all fixed with the correct trail stop method.

lesson: You trade momentum, so you must track momentum moves (pivot highs/lows) when trailing stop, albeit in a smaller time frame,

trading day:

R+1.1: 2 Wins, 1 Loss

EJ trade:  Short at supply in strong downtrend.

EU trade:  Short at supply in strong downtrend.

GU trade:  Long at H4 demand into fresh H4 supply =  early exit

intro: started today where I left off yesterday... wanting to practice what my coach defines trading as : "managing risk". The penny dropped yesterday when watching a trading documentary with a trainer who was under-trading and as such was not allowed to move to live trading because he didn't have enough experience; Sim trading is about building experience managing risk.

thoughts: first two trades were simple shorts in a downtrend at supply, momentum never really kicked in so exited for +0.7 on both.  The loser was probably not the best trade, although I'll concede to myself that it wasn't easy.  I bought low at H4 demand which was the right idea,  but on drilling out to the h4 time frame I saw price had just put in a pivot high, defining supply just above current price so I got out for -0.3 as I realised I had no edge. This was a counter trend trade.

summary: Happy with today, another 3 trades under the belt and another 3 experiences managing risk.  got to be careful counter trend trading even off longterm levels, in the GU example I would have been better off trading short term charts with trend.

lessons: 1. Don't fight the trend.

Today's trading...

R+0.3: 1 Loss, 1 Win

EU trade:  just breaking the "no trade cycle" and managing risk.

GU trade: could've held a bit longer.

intro: on watching the other millions by the minutes documentary and having this nagging feeling that I am not trading I just wanted to put a trade on today to break the cycle.  The first was a loss the second was a win.

thoughts: I bloody hate not trading as I know when I'm not trading I'm not learning or building experience.  The last couple days the markets have been flying away from long term levels (the ones I try and trade) leaving me no entries so today when the M30 trend picked up I drilled down to the M5 chart to try and find rally entries on the EU and GU. The main goal of today was to break the cycle of no trades, the second was to make my coach proud.  Watching the first episode of the documentary there was a trainer trader whose coaches were unwilling to let go live as they simple didn't have enough data in him, he under traded as little as 1 trade a day over  seven markets and as such they were worried that he was under experienced. I trade 3 markets and their worry about him made me realise I should be taking at least a 1-2 trades a day. It's about building experience as much as building capital.

summary: building capital is just a by-product of managing risk. I keep forgetting that trading is simply about managing risk, sure you need to time an entry to where you think there will be some momentum but ultimately if you lose small/mange risk you are more likely to win/be profitable as you have less loss to make up. Today I tried to trade with an eye towards making my coach proud, taking positions where there was a good possibility of momentum kicking then managing the *&^% out of the risk.

lessons: 1. in fast markets, drill down to the M5 to find an entry, any rally/pullback will do. 2. if you get an potential entry where you think there'll be momentum, just get in and manage the risk 3. trading is about managing risk and building experience

morning prep:

afternoon summary:

No Trades: Struggling With Entries and Exits

EJ trade: worried about M30 demand cutting short, short. 

 EU trade: got supply level in wrong place.

intro: added 3 new pairs as coach suggested. I chose the USDCHF, USDJPY and AUDUSD, however I'm taking them off. At the moment life is very hectic.  My fiancée and I have just exchanged on a flat that is riddled with problems and is taking up a lot of my time seeing as I am the one who "works from home". Couple this with the fact that there are issues at a property I rent out that is my main source of income, suffice to say I am pretty stressed.

thoughts: there were 2 issues today the first being where to get in the second being where to take profit. The EU and EJ were the only pairs to potentially setup but I scared myself out of the short trades on the M30 charts because there was M30 demand nearer than 3:1 on the EJ. This fear was definitely due to reading a Seiden article yesterday about why trades fail. But this was regarding stocks and my D1, H4 and M30 charts were all trending down and so the only demand I should really have been fearful of was  a longer term one and that (H4) would have achieved a 3:1 and did. And I missed an entry on the EU because I got my supply level in the wrong place.

summary: stressed means I ballsed up entries and lost objectivity regarding supply and demand. Not surprising really I didn't get any trades.

lessons: 1. trading with trend, trade into longer term levels. counter trend trading , be aware of M30 levels. 2. S&D is better drawn around some bars not one.

morning prep:

afternoon summary:

Nothing Triggered

intro: Simplified prep this morning to just 1 supply and demand level on each time-frame as Seiden suggests. 

morning prep:

afternoon summary:

Missed EJ Trade

intro: Did prep this AM, initially found it hard as I'm quite tired and price is retracing to long-term levels.

thoughts: plan was to wait for ECB interest rates and US initial jobless claims, then wait some more for the reaction to push price into a level of supply or demand and then take the other side.

summary: I did do the above however I missed my entry because I was looking for a LOHP short rather than a sell limit entry.

lessons: 1. waiting for data to create moves that are then tradeable is useful and time efficient. 2. I mustn't be scared of using limit orders to get into trades.

EJ missed trade:

morning prep:

afternoon summary:

BBC Traders Millions By The Minute Season 1 Episode 2 Full Episode ( from 10mins 15secs to 12mins 10secs are the most interesting IMHO)

No Trades

intro: Nothing setup so just my prep and summary. NB using slightly wider S&D areas, see video.

morning prep:

afternoon summary:

R-0.4: 1 Loss EJ, Missed 2 good trades

intro:  One trade on the EJ, Long at H4 demand wouldn't have traded it any differently. But missed some trades.

thoughts:  After my losing trade I went out for a run.  When I got home I missed a couple of good long trades on the EU and GU which occurred in H4 demand because no alerts sounded to alert to the level of interest. The problem being the tradesoccurred in a wide area of interest. I also probably got a little carried away worrying about getting a convergence of M30 and H4 demand.

summary: Placed one good trade  but missed two great ones because I couldn't set alerts to draw my attention to them as the range they occurred in was too wide for alerts to be effective. This means that I am going to have to "check in" every 30 mins (as entries are on M30) when price reaches an area of interest to ensure I don't miss entries.

lessons: 1. When price reaches a long term supply/demand level check in every 30 min period to ensure you don't miss any trade setups. 2.  When prices reaches a long term area all setups are valid

morning prep

afternoon summary

EJ trade

R-1.0: 1 Loss EJ, 1 Breakeven EU

intro: A very long wait today for any trades to occur and got impatient. This resulted in me forcing a trade on the EJ.

thoughts: The EU trade was good, the EJ trade was bad. I think I am putting too much emphasis on high correlations. The EU and EJ were very highly correlated today and I felt I should really be getting short on both at the same time. This resulted in me taking a short on the EJ from a weak level of H4 supply I wouldn't ordinarily use just because it coincided with a EU short.

summary: Had I just taken the EU short I would have been break even for the day, possibly had I got in on the re-attack as my coach suggests I would have got a win and clearly XLT traders do this too. Whatever... the most important thing is that I didn't trade my plan and I got bit in the ass for it.

lessons:  1. don't put so much weight on correlations, If you only have one true entry that's the only thing you can take! Yes ideally it would have been great to get short the EU and EJ today as there correlation was very high but don't force it. 2. only use pivot highs/lows and gaps with strong momentum moves as supply/demand! 3. Don't be scared to trade re-attacks of levels! 4. if it wasn't clear at the time it wasn't a trade but if the move off it was fast it might now be a tradeable level.5. Stop questioning the coach, start following the coach.

morning prep...

afternoon summary...

EU trade...

EJ trade...(weak supply... not actually supply!)

February 2015 Summary: R-0.2

Deposit/Withdrawal:		0.00		Credit Facility:				0.00
Closed Trade P/L:		-2.69		Floating P/L:				0.00	Margin:			0.00
Balance:		1 253.86		Equity:				1 253.86	Free Margin:			1 253.86
Gross Profit:		42.68		Gross Loss:				45.37	Total Net Profit:			-2.69
Profit Factor:		0.94		Expected Payoff:				-0.16
Absolute Drawdown:		33.97		Maximal Drawdown:				33.97 (2.70%)	Relative Drawdown:			2.70% (33.97)
Total Trades:		17		Short Positions (won %):				16 (37.50%)	Long Positions (won %):			1 (0.00%)
Profit Trades (% of total):								6 (35.29%)	Loss trades (% of total):			11 (64.71%)
Largest		profit trade:						14.08	loss trade:			-6.56
Average		profit trade:						7.11	loss trade:			-4.12
Maximum		consecutive wins ($):						3 (10.92)	consecutive losses ($):			7 (-33.97)
Maximal		consecutive profit (count):						22.76 (2)	consecutive loss (count):			-33.97 (7)
Average		consecutive wins:						2	consecutive losses:			3

intro: From the PL chart on it would appear that the first half of the month was poor and the second half better. Unfortunately I swapped my primary blog throughout the month so two third's of February's trades are on my old one, if you wish to see them you can here or there's a trade break down at the bottom of this post.

numbers: My win rate has taken a hit, down from from 48% to 35% from January. My largest win/loss trade and average win/loss trade have made great head way. Last month's largest win was only 9% more profitable than my largest loss.  This month my largest win was 115% more profitable than my largest loss. These sound amazing but the truth lies in the average win/loss numbers. Last month's average win was 19% more profitable than my average loss.  This month my average win is 73% more profitable than my average loss. On the whole this is very good progress and no doubt due to me getting my losses smaller in February by using momentum/time and trailing stops like my coach Paul (see "resources" page) suggested. He says "the first loss is your smallest", despite me understanding what he said I think I've only started believing/knowing it today.

thoughts: This month has been patchy. There was a lot going on in a new flat my fiance and I have just bought, I have had to be in and out during the day which has meant missing trades, particularly in the later part of the month. Having said this my worse trades were at the beginning of the month. 

 issues... 

1. not trailing stop fast enough
2. shorting off broken supply x 2
3. Late entry
4. Poor/No Prep
5. Completely uncorrelated entry 

lessons...

1. beware of small hammer and shooting star entry bars
2. I should be able to trade H4 levels on the H4 chart.
3. I need to be looking at the M30 and H4 charts simultaneously.
4. The pivot high/low isn't always exactly where the momentum kicked in!
5. If I'm rushing or impatient (watching price action rather than waiting on alerts to sound) I'm not in the right head space and it's probably best to leave it for the day.
6. when external things are really mounting up, it's best to deal with them first before starting trading.
7. label all H4 turning points and let price tell which are valid. 
8. try and get convergence across the pairs on your entries.
9. concetrate on Primary trades over secondary trades
10. On levels which have been touched multiple time it is better to draw a "best fit" supply/demand area rather than take it from the extreme of a pivot high or low like a did this AM.

summary: 2 break even months in a row is by far my best performance to date. Quite a lot to add to plan and guide but ultimately when I started getting my trailing and momentum stops going midway through month it was much easier to register gains and improve my averages!

____________________________________________________________________________________

trade breakdown...

Trade 1: EJ short,  good entry but could have trailed stop on M5 faster. = bad

Trade 2: GU short,  poor entry as supply had been broken (closed above) = bad

Trade 3: GU short,  poor entry as supply had been broken (closed above) = bad

Trade 4: GU short,  poor entry, initially fine but got in 3 bars after setup so no momentum! = bad

Trade 5: GU short.  good entry , tight loss exit =  good

Trade 6: EJ short.  good entry , tight loss exit =  good

Trade 7: EJ short.  good entry , tight loss exit =  good

Trade 8:  EJ short,  entry sell limit!, exit prior low =  profit= good

Trade 9:  EU short,  entry sell limit!, exit no momentum small loss  =  good

Trade 10: EJ short,  entry LOHP, exit no momentum small loss  =  good

Trade 11: EU short,  entry LOHP, exit Trail stop,  small loss  =  good

Trade 12: GU short,  entry LOHP (close above supply but v correlated), exit at demand for profit  =  good

Trade 13.  GU short.  good entry , tight loss exit =  good

Trade 14: EU short,  entry LOHP, exit demand, Win  =  good

Trade 15: EJ short,  entry LOHP(close above supply but v correlated), exit demand, Win  =  good

Trade 16: EU short,  entry bad (poor prep and uncorrelated!), exit fast =  bad

Trade 17: EJ short,  entry okay ( but small shooting star!) exit trailing stop. okay