Monday 2 March 2015

February 2015 Summary: R-0.2


Deposit/Withdrawal:0.00Credit Facility:0.00
Closed Trade P/L:-2.69Floating P/L:0.00Margin:0.00
Balance:1 253.86Equity:1 253.86Free Margin:1 253.86
Gross Profit:42.68Gross Loss:45.37Total Net Profit:-2.69
Profit Factor:0.94Expected Payoff:-0.16
Absolute Drawdown:33.97Maximal Drawdown:33.97 (2.70%)Relative Drawdown:2.70% (33.97)
Total Trades:17Short Positions (won %):16 (37.50%)Long Positions (won %):1 (0.00%)
Profit Trades (% of total):6 (35.29%)Loss trades (% of total):11 (64.71%)
Largestprofit trade:14.08loss trade:-6.56
Averageprofit trade:7.11loss trade:-4.12
Maximumconsecutive wins ($):3 (10.92)consecutive losses ($):7 (-33.97)
Maximalconsecutive profit (count):22.76 (2)consecutive loss (count):-33.97 (7)
Averageconsecutive wins:2consecutive losses:3

intro: From the PL chart on it would appear that the first half of the month was poor and the second half better. Unfortunately I swapped my primary blog throughout the month so two third's of February's trades are on my old one, if you wish to see them you can here or there's a trade break down at the bottom of this post.

numbers: My win rate has taken a hit, down from from 48% to 35% from January. My largest win/loss trade and average win/loss trade have made great head way. Last month's largest win was only 9% more profitable than my largest loss.  This month my largest win was 115% more profitable than my largest loss. These sound amazing but the truth lies in the average win/loss numbers. Last month's average win was 19% more profitable than my average loss.  This month my average win is 73% more profitable than my average loss. On the whole this is very good progress and no doubt due to me getting my losses smaller in February by using momentum/time and trailing stops like my coach Paul (see "resources" page) suggested. He says "the first loss is your smallest", despite me understanding what he said I think I've only started believing/knowing it today.

thoughts: This month has been patchy. There was a lot going on in a new flat my fiance and I have just bought, I have had to be in and out during the day which has meant missing trades, particularly in the later part of the month. Having said this my worse trades were at the beginning of the month. 

 issues... 
  1. not trailing stop fast enough
  2. shorting off broken supply x 2
  3. Late entry
  4. Poor/No Prep
  5. Completely uncorrelated entry 
lessons...
  1. beware of small hammer and shooting star entry bars
  2. I should be able to trade H4 levels on the H4 chart.
  3. I need to be looking at the M30 and H4 charts simultaneously.
  4. The pivot high/low isn't always exactly where the momentum kicked in!
  5. If I'm rushing or impatient (watching price action rather than waiting on alerts to sound) I'm not in the right head space and it's probably best to leave it for the day.
  6. when external things are really mounting up, it's best to deal with them first before starting trading.
  7. label all H4 turning points and let price tell which are valid. 
  8. try and get convergence across the pairs on your entries.
  9. concetrate on Primary trades over secondary trades
  10. On levels which have been touched multiple time it is better to draw a "best fit" supply/demand area rather than take it from the extreme of a pivot high or low like a did this AM.
summary: 2 break even months in a row is by far my best performance to date. Quite a lot to add to plan and guide but ultimately when I started getting my trailing and momentum stops going midway through month it was much easier to register gains and improve my averages!
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trade breakdown...

Trade 1: EJ short,  good entry but could have trailed stop on M5 faster. = bad
Trade 2: GU short,  poor entry as supply had been broken (closed above) = bad
Trade 3: GU short,  poor entry as supply had been broken (closed above) = bad
Trade 4: GU short,  poor entry, initially fine but got in 3 bars after setup so no momentum! = bad
Trade 5: GU short.  good entry , tight loss exit =  good
Trade 6: EJ short.  good entry , tight loss exit =  good
Trade 7: EJ short.  good entry , tight loss exit =  good
Trade 8:  EJ short,  entry sell limit!, exit prior low =  profit= good
Trade 9:  EU short,  entry sell limit!, exit no momentum small loss  =  good
Trade 10: EJ short,  entry LOHP, exit no momentum small loss  =  good
Trade 11: EU short,  entry LOHP, exit Trail stop,  small loss  =  good
Trade 12: GU short,  entry LOHP (close above supply but v correlated), exit at demand for profit  =  good
Trade 13.  GU short.  good entry , tight loss exit =  good
Trade 14: EU short,  entry LOHP, exit demand, Win  =  good
Trade 15: EJ short,  entry LOHP(close above supply but v correlated), exit demand, Win  =  good
Trade 16: EU short,  entry bad (poor prep and uncorrelated!), exit fast =  bad
Trade 17: EJ short,  entry okay ( but small shooting star!) exit trailing stop. okay

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