Stocks, Oil, Fed, Lack of Follow Through

Sods law I nearly put a video up about this this morning, I would have looked like a right smart ass, never-mind guess it was 50/50 I could have looked like a plonker.

So just like most people I have been concious of the price of oil, stocks and the Fed lift off, which of course occurred yesterday. I had been on the sidelines for the week not wanting to walk in front of the proverbial bus but the bus didn't come, perhaps it's late?

It was my understanding that the general consensus was that the Fed raising interests rates would be a clear indicator of their confidence in the US economy but the S&P500 only moved 300 odd points, an average-ish bar.  I appreciate there was something like a 90% chance of them lifting and a lot was priced in but this felt a little pathetic. So yesterday my feelings were swaying to either, 1. investors didn't have much confidence in the economy or 2.much confidence in the Fed. Neither of which filled me with joy.

In fairness I am undoubtedly swayed by my own opinion as I don't have much faith in the US economy or the Fed. It's my belief that the huge (stock) rally has been caused by cheap money not demand for products, otherwise we would be seeing inflation which is still anaemic for everything in the US with the exception of commodities (oil excluded of course).

IMO:

• Stock prices inflated due to high demand. Why would you buy bonds when you can buy stocks with cheap money,  huge more upside and practically zero risk thanks to the Fed QEing itself into a coma. 
• But CPI(inflation) is not rising because there is no real increased demand for consumer products.
• While energy prices are rising not due to demand but cost-push inflation as energy becomes more expensive to produce. 

This all makes me a grisly (and grumpy) bear. I guess I'm thinking that there only needs to be a small something to push that rock over the cliff that will crack that ice shelf , that will slip into the sea and cause that tsunami. We thought it might be China but that seems to have cooled at least for the time being but OPEC might just be it. I appreciate they're playing the long game, keeping up production until non-OPEC oil producers slow at which point oil prices will rise on reduced supply and OPEC will be able to profit as demand matches then exceeds supply, you've got to love how they keep things simple. But they may well be playing with fire (convenient pun) . If the world economy crashes again surely demand for commodities will remain lower for much longer.

Is the end nigh, no I'm probably just high from the No-More-Nails I resorted too when putting up the blinds this afternoon. But the day ended in my favour, a big red candle taking out all of yesterday's gains and a bearish engulfing pattern to boot. I might test the water with a short. Technically my method is telling me to sell in the short-term anyway.

S&P500 D1 chart, Note Bearish Engulfing Pattern at Resistance far right.

A New Direction For 2016

In truth I wondered if this blog was dead.

My issue is not that I am no longer trading, although due to external issues my trading has certainly been sporadic this year. The issue has been that I have changed my strategy and this strategy was taught to me by my coach, so it's not mine to share. My quandary as the blog author has been, will I be able to share enough for it to make sense to a potential reader?

It's taken most of the year to come up with the answer, yes. I can't go into the nitty gritty of exactly how we define strength and weakness but I can certainly share my trades as the setups we use are pretty generic, candle setups with the trend at support or resistance, nothing new. While I can of course share my personal thoughts and lessons.

For any of you who are interested, my coach's name is Paul Wallace, you can find links to his websites on the resources tab. Paul's method is ultimately a top down approach that in his own words tries to "buy strength and sell weakness". Conveniently my blog title is along the same lines, otherwise a restart would probably have been in order.

Going forward I hope to even out the amount of blogs vs vlogs, I appreciate I've been vlog heavy this year. I might put some stuff up in the coming days but failing that see you in 2016. 

Loads of Trades

A load of trades placed this week, Selling EUR, Buying USD

Stop Cherry Picking Your Trades

Title is purely to tell ME what to do, not what other traders should do.



I do my prep on the weekend to ensure I am buying the strongest/ selling the weakest currencies.



During the week I often get 4 setups occurring at the same time and instead of taking them all, I take one that "looks the best" and usually ends up failing and avoiding the other three which invariably hit their PTs.



Not only is this causing a negative PL but it is also giving my strategy incorrect readings KPIs as I am not fairly distributing equity into all the edges it provides me.

Observation? Add it to your F***ing Plan!

R-3 this week over 3 trades, so fine in terms of risk management.  However with losses come lessons. Mine were...



1. Observations must immediately go into plans.

2. Kill any trades that are not in profit after 3 bars close.



More in vid...

FBT Kicked In, Need to Tidy Up Rules!

FBT (fear based trading) kicked yesterday. 2 main reasons ...

1. Too much to look at , 4 intraday pairs.

2. Wasn't sure of my plan.



As Paul says "Ambiguity in a fast moving market is going to kill you". So I am off my intraday method for the next few days while I tidy it up and get it rule based.



More in vid if your interested.

Intraday Trend Strength

Spent Friday intraday trading as couldn't find any swing setups.



I have 4 pairs I watch EU, EG, AU and GU, yesterday this was exhausting. I could really have done with whittling down what I watch at the begging of the day to reserve energy and to avoid missing good trades.



What I noticed (at the end of the day of course) was that the EG was by far and away the strongest trending pair and offered the best M5 price action. This was because H1 price remained above its 20SMA and with the surer H1 trend the more fluid M5 price action became as there was more conviction in the direction of the EG. The opposite was true for the other pairs which spent at least some time below their H1 20SMA and subsequently their M5 charts offered far less appealing price action.



Ultimately it's great to have a several pairs to watch as you never know where the strength is going to show up. But I can start reducing my workload quickly by concentrating solely on the pairs that respect there H1 20SMA in relation to their trend.

Intraday Method

Short explanation of the intraday method I was using yesterday. The key was really getting the trend and momentum aligned. Credit to Paul Wallace and the VTP from which this was adapted.

R+4 Intraday EU

4 trades and net R+4 today. A lot more work needed to make anything of this. Having said that I planned my trades, traded my plans and managed my risk. So guess we'll see.

2 Open EU and EG shorts, 1 Pending EA short

More when positions close...

Method Update + vid and a Couple Orders+ vid

So as anyone who follows my youtube page or blog will know, I have predominantly been trading with supply and demand this year.

My coach Paul Wallace (@fxtraderpaul, www.fxtradepaul.com, www.tradingbeliefs.com) has been helping me implement this method more effectively and recently included me on a course he usually runs for veterans of the armed services, it is called the Veterans Trading Program (VTP). Its content have been extremely thorough and informative and has given me more a far more extensive and I believe professional framework to place my trading ideas around, manage them and analysis there outcomes. 

It is clearly not my place to share the specifics of the VTP course but in this video I hope you get the broad strokes of where my trading is moving with the aid of its input.

Method Update Video...

Sell orders

R-1: 1 Loss, Stopped by the Pip

intro: reverted to old method of IDing S&D. this helped and ensured I wasn't missing anything obvious. Got short the EJ and just got stopped before it started to return to my trade direction. Also got short EU , which I'm still in.



thoughts: slightly adapted my levels of S/D to be slightly nearer momentum this was to avoid just missing an entry by a few pips,



summary: moving levels so there nearer momentum was a good idea I also I think adding a 5-10 pip margin on top of my stop to avoid premature stops would be a good despite increasing the risk size.



EJ trade:

Nothing Triggered

intro: reverted to my old method of IDing S&D. Nothing triggered but orders remain in place. See method tab for more details of method.

R-2: 2 Full Losses

intro: Got short the EU and EJ this morning (tuesday 21st) on sell limits at supply. The Euro entered a hard uptrend and both shortly triggered and got stopped out. Failed to notice they were both at daily demand!



thoughts: I changed my method for identifying S/D areas on Monday and it doesn't seem to have helped! Couple this with the fact that I failed to to measure the potential moves, both of which were sub 1:3 which is not the game plan, so many faults



summary: Faultly by nature, "hip stop horray". Either got to set limit orders at daily levels or at least have them marked to avoid being on the wrong side of the move and to measure risk correctly!



EJ trade:

EU trade:

R+1: 1 Win, 3 Misses

EG trade:

intro: Got short the EG some point this PM on a sell limit set this morning, exited this PM for R+1. Closed as end of day and an intraday position , so didn't want to be exposed overnight. My other sell limits didn't trigger.

thoughts: Slight change of approach in identifying S/D zones which can be seen on the "method" tab
or as follows...

1. Look for the very nearest pivot, gap, counter trend bar in a hard trend or cluster and draw a rectangle around it. Levels below price are demand, above supply. 
2. Now drill down to next timeframe Ie MN to W1. W1 to D1, D1 to H4 or H4 to M30. 
3. The move will now look far stronger on the shorter timeframe, use it to find where the momentum really kicked in and adjust the rectangle accordingly, it should usually get tighter. 
4. Set limit order around this momentum adjusted level, this is your supply/demand level for that time frame. 
5. Levels that are pivots, untested, near LT S/D with fast returns are preferable to the counter. 
6. Include any up/down fractals around the same price to avoid premature stop outs. 
7. Measure the distance between the demand and supply level and determine whether or not there is a desirable profit margin (approx 1:3 Swing / 1:1 Intraday), if there is not you will have to widen your search. 

summary: Like the method above, it is shorter, simpler and easier to follow. Re trade, followed the plan so execution and performance were good all round.

video: 

Nothing Triggered, Orders Left in Place

As said nothing triggered so didn't bother updating video. Orders left in place as swing trades, so should still be valid tomorrow.

R+1.6: 1 Win, 3 Misses

intro: set 4 sell limits, many were way off the mark, one triggered.



thoughts: Because I didn't take trades that "triggered" last Friday this sort of upset my ability to see which were "current" levels and previously "tested" levels, I think this makes sense in the vid if it doesn't here. Basically today I really should have been holding positions open from last week rather than a looking for new levels to trade. Anyway GBPUSD short triggered and I exited manually at R+1.6,  which was bad form as this is a swing trade so the minimum RRR should've been 1:2.



summary: Not a bad read. Despite the levels I chose being mostly way above price action, they're still valid and good levels. Yes I should have been in trades from last week but I can't cry over split milk, all I can do is get on with identifying the next tradeable levels which I did.



GU trade:

091015 Better Read (momentum), Nothing Triggered

Very little to say as nothing actually happened to my account. But worth noting prep is made much easier/faster by looking for strong momentum and then retracing it to it's origin.

080715 No Trades, Tired

intro: Okay, had a hell of a job doing my prep this morning, I was "umming and arrhing" over everything. I was over-tired.



thoughts: Been pretty physical Monday and Tuesday and coupled with not sleeping right I just wasn't in the head space to make clear and logical decisions, as can be seen. What I have done though is update my trade plan. Just putting in some more checklists so that it's easier to follow/eliminates  decision making when I'm tired.



summary: I can't "not trade" every time I'm a little tired, I'd never trade! I've got to assume that I might be tired everyday of the week, however I know I can still function provided I stay "slow and steady". It's when I'm tired and I try and go fast, in all areas of my life, that the wheels fall off. So with the additional checklists hope I have eliminated some of the decision making from my day, guess we'll see...

070715 No Trades Triggered Me For Today

Set some sell limit orders as you'll see in the video none of them triggered as price dropped like a brick off the bat. Not much else to say.

060715 R 1, didn't measure risk correctly

intro: A good read throughout except the GBPUSD, I set a limit order on it which felt/looked "wrong" and subsequently gave me the loss.



thoughts: In hindsight, well with fresh eyes the fact is it didn't offer a "solid" 3R from the offset. It  "felt wrong" because the supply/demand imbalance just wasn't that out of balance.



summary: Today I have defined a "solid 3R" as : 3R being reached before price runs into the top of demand or bottom of supply. These precise definitions are the reasons why I am not struggling to follow this trade plan and the reason why I am making less mistakes, there is no ambiguity. There was today but there won't be tomorrow or until I find another unclear area of my plan.



GU trade:

030715 Momentum Turns + RRR = Best

A great read today and would have been great results. This was achieved solely by putting the 2 major points first. 1. identifying supply and demand as the origin of momentum turns 2. only accepting them as levels to trade if they offer at least a 1:3 RRR to the next level of S/D.

Will be back forward testing next week, so there will be some actual trades to view. Going to tidy my trade plan up over the weekend.

020715 Defining RRR

Okay another pretty good read. Two levels triggered but because they were so wide they were hard pushed to meet their profit objectives. Just the way it goes sometimes I think but asks the question what do you do, hold over night? or close at end of day? guess tomorrow will answer my question.



The only other thing worth mentioning was how to correctly measure potential RRR which is as follows and in in Seiden's own words...



"Only trade opportunities that offer at least a 3:1 profit zone to the first target....

1) Identify the nearest demand level below current price.

2) Identify the nearest supply level above current price.

3) Measure the distance between the demand and supply level and determine whether or not there is a desirable profit margin (3:1)"

010715 Trend Analysis Addition

Okay another good read in general however two things came up.



1.My trade plan is lacking trend analysis. This was intentional as I am trading between levels so the trend felt irrelevant but of course it isn't, particularly when day trading I don't want to be pissing in the wind of a longer term trend. So I am going to define the trend on the H4 chart, as the current fractal trend (look midway/right!) and I am going to trade with it on the M30 chart until price reaches H4 S/D and reverses.



2. A level I chose today got tested and a little leeway would have helped me stay in the position. So i'm going to add spread x2 (3-4pips) to the stop loss size to avoid getting faked out in the future.

300615 Much Better Reads

Again almost all in the title. Today I just followed the instructions I left at the end of yesterday's post and the "power" of the supply and demand levels I chose today were far stronger. I just have to follow those instructions to find decent supply and demand. I repeat them here with a little more info

KIS: Strong Supply/ Demand =

1. Must be at the origin of a turn/change in momentum (a fractal even a cluster of fractals, provided they are at the top or bottom of a move that then reverses direction).

2. Must offer at least 1:3 RRR from the turn/change in momentum (to ensure you can hit a 1:2).

3. If possible you want to see strong momentum on the turn (this shows true supply/demand imbalance).

4. If possible you want your turn in momentum to be untested (this means price will be hitting more orders).

5.  If possible you want your turn in momentum to be near longer term S/D.  (again this means price will be hitting more orders).

6. If possible you want a sharp return to the potential S/D level.  (no "steps" means it's easier for price to reverse back through prior action)

290615 Wasn't Labeling Origin of Move

All in the title really. It amazes me that even 2 days off and I come back with some rust.  There was a big gap down today in many of the EUR crosses that made me feel there must have been supply there. However it was a gap down  from a consolidation, nowhere near the origin of the move down, so of course was not valid at all.



KIS: Strong Supply/ Demand =

1. origin of momentum change

2. strong momentum at change

3. momentum change untested

4. near longer term S/D

5. sharp return to the potential S/D level.

6. move off potential S/D at least 1:3 RRR

260615 Some M30 moves

Prep and update from Friday.  Read definitely improving and some potential trades worked out. Feel like the rust is nearly gone. So will be looking to trade next week, probably on Wednesday to tie in with the new month neatly.

Got to ensure I'm not too stingy on my zones, I would have missed a good trade today by a pip or two because of this.

250615 Prep and Update

More improvement in my reads as I just stick to the trade plan:

1. Get the long term levels from W1 and D1 charts.

2. Get the current levels from H4 and M30 charts.

3. Plan trades between the current levels.

Suppy and demand strengthening factors: look for strong momentum moves/trend bars, this is where hard buying /selling was taking place. Zone in on the origin of these strong momentum moves, if it is a fractal pivot high/low that's great, if a cluster of fractal, ensure you include the extremes to avoid an early stop, even stretch the zone to the next fractal if you can. It's nice for the the level to be "fresh"/untested but this isn't always possible.

240615 Prep on on Multiple Timeframes

Okay a slightly different approach today. Started out on the weekly charts as per usual but instead looked primarily for "primary trades" on the 4 hour chart levels (as my plan says, duh!) and then drilled down to the M30 to look for "secondary trades" /shorter term trades (as my plan says!). This was a much better day in terms of both reading because I got back to what my plan says... why must I constantly try and reinvent the wheel, like I have been since I got back? Ha!

230615 Prep and S&D explanation

My prep from this morning and an update later in the day... Forgot to double check my selected levels on 2 time frames (should have consulted the H4 too). Any way no money risked as still getting my eye in so not the end of the world but always annoying that all this stuff doesn't stay retained unless I'm active.

220615 Prep and Analysis

intro: Just keeping my eye in, hope to be back next week more regularly but may well be 2 weeks realistically, has have to move too.



thoughts: Note I am happy trading older levels, provided the most recent test of them was strong, suggesting there may still well be supply/demand imbalance / unfilled buy/sell orders there.

Fractal Entry Idea

intro: missed a lot of trades today but that was expected due to the DIY-a-thon for the next few weeks.

thoughts: just wanted to record this screen shot below, there were 3 of these setups across the pairs today, this is one one them.  It shows a M15 entry I was talking about in my last video about.

EU trade: Short at H1 Supply

AM video:

Back! (sporadically)

personal: As you may or may not know I got married a month ago.  It seems to have been the longest wedding known to man! My brother and sister in-law stayed with us for 2 weeks after the wedding then we all flew to Canada for a further 2 weeks, where they're from, taking the wedding on tour for those who couldn't make it.
Back now but the major issue is the flat I've been moaning about previously. We need to move in by the end of the month because it's killing us financially, paying rent and mortgage simultaneously. Suffice to say that finding quiet time for trading and/or DIY has been quite difficult recently. So to get back and have a relatively free calender is a godsend. For that reason and to max my DIY time I'm putting my trading efforts to the end of the day/evening so I can get multiple/consecutive hours doing what needs to be done in the flat. As such my posts might be sporadic for this month.

trading: Method is still pretty much the same: Identify longterm levels of supply and demand and trade them on shorter time frames. However my favoured time frames have changed to W1 and H1 to find levels, and the D1 and M15 respectfully to trade from.
The reason for this change is firstly because I noticed that the H4 levels were a little too wide and I was missing good intraday moves. And secondly because they are universal times. Meaning that whatever broker or chart feed you look at (GMT / GMT+2 etc) the bars should look the same, because globally every hour and week finish at the same time.
As far as entries go my coach has told me to start looking for candle setups at levels rather than using limit orders but this might be difficult this month due to the above. I'll endeavour to do as he asks but being at the charts every hour will obviously be difficult. That's pretty much it for now, there's a little more in the video below about trades and levels.

video: update, prep and trade plan for day/week. Not uploading for some reason so just a pic sorry...

April 2015 Summary: -0.2

Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal:		0.00		Credit Facility:				0.00
Closed Trade P/L:		-2.60		Floating P/L:				0.00	Margin:			0.00
Balance:		1 242.62		Equity:				1 242.62	Free Margin:			1 242.62
Details:
Gross Profit:		49.84		Gross Loss:				52.44	Total Net Profit:			-2.60
Profit Factor:		0.95		Expected Payoff:				-0.26
Absolute Drawdown:		34.06		Maximal Drawdown:				46.14 (3.67%)	Relative Drawdown:			3.67% (46.14)
Total Trades:		10		Short Positions (won %):				10 (40.00%)	Long Positions (won %):			0 (0.00%)
Profit Trades (% of total):								4 (40.00%)	Loss trades (% of total):			6 (60.00%)
Largest		profit trade:						20.10	loss trade:			-11.56
Average		profit trade:						12.46	loss trade:			-8.74
Maximum		consecutive wins ($):						2 (30.86)	consecutive losses ($):			5 (-46.14)
Maximal		consecutive profit (count):						30.86 (2)	consecutive loss (count):			-46.14 (5)
Average		consecutive wins:						1	consecutive losses:			3

intro: a funny month as had much on outside of trading. This meant adapting my method mid-month so that I didn't have to be around for trade entries or manage "in-trade" risk.

graph: the major draw down (trades 1-6) came from my first week with the new method, I was still "finding my way" with it. The second week using the new method improved and made up most of my losses.

numbers: Going to call this a break even month (-0.2). which is definitely an improvement on last March (-0.7). Happy to see my hit rate is staying around 40%. My largest win was 42% more profitable than my largest loss,  while my average win was 29% more profitable than my largest loss, again better than March but still room for improvement in both these areas as I would need a large 61% wine rate to turn my efforts profitable. 

summary: My win rate has been between 35-42% for the last four months which means that to turn profitable I need to get my average win 58-65% greater than my average loss. The only two ways I can do that is by letting my winners run, this I'm not sure is possible as I am already trading price into the next level of S/D. Or by reducing risk. The following are what I wish to work on in May...

1. ensuring that you are always risking 1% of account per trade. actually went under size this month! so a +2R gain only registered a 1% gain in P/L.

2.  choosing low risk, high reward entries. started poorly this month but got better 

3.  reducing risk (trail and time stops) in trade. harder to do this month as using a "set and forgot" method.

lessons:

1. accommodate the brokers spread and nearby price action when setting targets.

2. Find potential demand levels in uptrend price action, find potential supply levels in downtrend price action.

3. you got to swing the bat, to hit the ball. 

4. using quality S/D (pivot high/lo) on higher time frames means higher probabilities as levels are clearer for all to see so therefore less exploritory breakouts that can take out stops. 

5. ask yourself if your level is truly supply/demand or just a pivot hi/lo. 

6. hard drops/rallies from a level and price spending very little time at the level are positive factors.

7. don't make trading/plan decisions when tired!

R+0.6: 1 Win

GU Trade: Long term trend down, Shorted at H4 supply (R+0.6)

intro: this was a sell limit I set up last week. It triggered last night and I took profit this morning just above my pre-set target as I noticed that price had put in a newer high (7 bars ago) since my setting it.

thoughts: Am aware that there has been a steady trend up recently across the major pairs and particularly the GU, this can be clearly seen on the H4 chart above. A part of me looked at this this morning and thought "I wish I had been trading to the long side the past week or so". But in reality this a shorter term swing trend and would have been not only very difficult to trade given my current time restrictions (imposed by a busy life) but also there is a high chance that my success rate would have dropped as it would have meant drilling down to smaller time frames to find levels and these are never going to be as powerful as the longer term levels I am trading currently. I am tired today and am only blogging to document this trade but it's still amazing that a brief look at the charts when tired made me double guess my work/strategy. So am going to finish this up sharpish and turn the bloody charts off! There

summary: a simple short at long term supply with the daily long term trend down. There might well be opportunities down on lower time frames but now (wedding week) is not the time to explore them!

lesson: don't make trading/plan decisions when tired!

R +1.2: 1 Win, 1 Loss

EJ trade: Shorted at H4 Supply with trend...(R+1.7)

EU trade: Shorted at weak H4 Supply (many tests) R-0.5

intro: so these trades were from orders placed on Wednesday and Thursday, I'm only updating today as they were triggered last night so not much to say until now.

thoughts: The EU trade was a loss probably because I was shorting really at an area where there was lack of buying interest rather than true supply. The EJ trade however I believe was a better supply level for 3 reasons. Firstly price spent very little time there, secondly the strong and aggressive drop from it, both suggesting a supply/demand imbalance, thirdly this was clearly the first revisit.

summary: All in all happy with this weeks efforts, I have managed to learn some lessons (with some help, thank you John) and have a positive week in terms of P/L. Quite possibly the last week of the month for me as next week is "wedding week"!

lessons: 1. ask yourself if your level is truly supply/demand or just a pivot hi/lo. 2. hard drops/rallies from a level and price spending very little time at the level are positive factors.

prep from the week:

end of week summary:

R+0.4: 1 Win, 1 Loss

EU Trade: Shorted at H4 Supply, but wasn't a great pivot high (more counter trend bar)

GU Trade: Shorted at H4 supply, slightly better pivot high?

intro: Placed 3 sell stops this morning,  two triggered, EU and GU. EU got stopped out then went my way,  GU triggered and I took profit before but near target as didn't want to hold over night.

thoughts: just wondering whether the EU H4 supply wasn't quite as strong as the GU level, due to it not being as clear a pivot high. Happy to accept that it was just bad luck/probabilities though.

summary: Again got to say "set and forget" is  much easier psychologically. Guess one danger is wanting to polish your edge too much that it crumbles. 

lesson: 1. you got to swing the bat, to hit the ball. 2. using quality S/D (pivot high/lo) on higher time frames means higher probabilities as levels are clearer for all to see so therefore less exploritory breakouts that can take out stops. 

video: AM prep

R-2: Both Trades Stopped, Shorting at Bad Supply

EU Trade: Shorted at incorrect Supply level (Pivot high in an uptrend).

EJ Trade:  Shorted at poor Supply (Pivot high in an upswing/trend).

intro: Took 2 short trades from weak supply levels because they (the supply levels) originated in an up trend, not down trend. 

thoughts: something felt wrong/off about these trades from the start but perfectly fitted my trade plan so couldn't not take them. In all the probably hundred plus Seiden articles I've read he's never mentioned finding supply levels from down trend price action or demand levels from up trend price action but feel like I'm making a valid point here and my Monday and Tuesday "good" trades corroborate it. (I guess his articles are free so he can't give up all the knowledge he expects people to pay for).

summary: 2 losses but feels like for the greater cause. The observation above/lesson below feels like a cheap one to potentially improve my edge quite a bit. Would like to say that despite the losses like a said yesterday this "set and forget" trading is easy and this is because I'm not wrestling emotions.

lesson: Find potential demand levels in uptrend price action, find potential supply levels in downtrend price action.

video:

No Trades, Overtired

intro: No Trades, noticed I was double guessing my game plans, which I only do when I'm tired so called it a day as know even when I pick a good trade I always manage to f*ck it up. Kept thinking of that quote of Paul's "Ambiguity in a fast moving market is going to kill you"!

video:

R-2 1. Target failed to trigger. 2. Hit stop

EJ trade: Shorted at Supply but broker didn't honour my target, you can see it was hit but didn't trigger, Pissed off! Good Trade.

EU trade:  Short at longterm fresh supply R-1, had a feeling this level might be tested harshly but not really something I could prepare for on any timeframe (I checked). So nothing to moan about on this one just didn't work out. Good trade in theory.

intro: Again doing set and forget. Chose what I believe were good potential supply levels, targets and stops but broker screwed me on my exit on the EJ trade, the other hit it's stop.

thoughts: On a metaphorical level while I was at the flat today sanding the ceiling by hand and thinking what a shit job it was, I realised that yes it was a shit job in terms of effort required but it was really quite an easy job. I just kept asking myself "is this little bit as smooth as it can be"? Yes -  move on, No - keep going. Then I thought that this job, trading with a set of rules, is really quite an easy job, yes it requires effort to continue to be disciplined and patient (the shit), but then it's just the same as the sanding, "does this trade meet my requirements"? Yes - take it,  No -  keep waiting.  Which made me think of something John says "it's not easy but it's not difficult"... I guess here I'm sort of saying saying "it's shit/hardwork, but it's easy", which makes no fucking sense at all! his is much better hahaha . There was also something about the scale of the sanding that made me draw comparisons to trading. If I looked at the whole ceiling the two inches I was working seemed pointless, which is a good metaphor for how I should look at individual trades. They're just being a tiny part of a trading year.  Don't know, maybe you had to be there. ha!

summary: Pissed off but that isn't going to fix anything, going to have reduce my target and accommodate the brokers spread when setting targets. EJ trade = Good trade, bad luck. EU trade =  just a trade.

lessons: 1. accommodate the brokers spread and nearby price action when setting targets.

video:

R+2 EU Sell Stop Short

EU Trade: Shorted at long term/multiple levels of supply

intro: Got a lot on at the moment external to trading, so have decided to put my trading a little on the back burner. Still looking in the AM but following Seiden's advice of set and forget. So limit orders used then CPU turned off and checked end of day, more in the video...

thoughts: actually pretty stress free, which was nice! Also back blogging feels good too,  bit of routine again!

summary: not much to say,  trade worked. Guess I've got to decide whether to hold limit orders overnight or cancel them. 

video: keeping it simple over next few weeks

video: today's summary

March 2015 Summary: R-0.4

Deposit/Withdrawal:		0.00		Credit Facility:				0.00
Closed Trade P/L:		-8.64		Floating P/L:				0.00	Margin:			0.00
Balance:		1 245.22		Equity:				1 245.22	Free Margin:			1 245.22
Details:
Gross Profit:		56.11		Gross Loss:				64.75	Total Net Profit:			-8.64
Profit Factor:		0.87		Expected Payoff:				-0.36
Absolute Drawdown:		19.54		Maximal Drawdown:				24.78 (1.97%)	Relative Drawdown:			1.97% (24.78)
Total Trades:		24		Short Positions (won %):				22 (45.45%)	Long Positions (won %):			2 (0.00%)
Profit Trades (% of total):								10 (41.67%)	Loss trades (% of total):			14 (58.33%)
Largest		profit trade:						15.08	loss trade:			-12.48
Average		profit trade:						5.61	loss trade:			-4.63
Maximum		consecutive wins ($):						3 (22.20)	consecutive losses ($):			3 (-19.98)
Maximal		consecutive profit (count):						22.20 (3)	consecutive loss (count):			-19.98 (3)
Average		consecutive wins:						1	consecutive losses:			2

intro: from the PL chart it seems there was very little consistency this month, a sea of chop! And this I believe is the truth.

numbers: Took a massive step backward. 7 more trades this month than last, probably because I wanted in to take  more trades to practice in-trade risk management but neglected out-trade management, whether I should really be taking the trade in the first place. My win rate is up to 41% from 35% which is an improvement but my largest and average profits/losses have suffered hugely.  With only 17% difference between my average win and loss size meaning I would need a success/hit rate of 83% to turn a profit the way I was trading this month. Last month the difference between my average win/loss was 42% so only a win rate of 58% was required. The numbers are telling me I will have a much better chance of success if I let my trades run and cutting losses quickly ( like last month) rather than trying for a high hit rate.

summary: I started getting a hang of my entry fears on a Paul Wallace quote " traders are paid to manage risk, analysts are paid to make the right calls" which finally hammered home the fact that I don't need to be right I just need to manage risk. I then thought (not wrongly) that because I have been avoiding trades for so long my in-trade risk management probably needed work/ practice. So I put on a lot more trades to practice my time stop and trail stop methods but was in all honesty a little lax on the entries and the levels I took, which of course is another part risk management and one that I neglected which clearly shows in the PL curve and numbers.  Ultimately I strayed from my plan a bit this month to satisfy some other parts of me, it's a hard one to say I was wrong to do this because my intrade risk management has improved but it is a timely reminder that risk management/trading most be a holistic approach. For this reason I need to go back and tidy up and amend my written plan (get the solider obeying commands again!)

lessons: It can be seen when I was sticking to plan at beginning of month the "lessons" were clear and useful. as I fell away from my plan the lessons were just a pile of drivel trying to reinvent the wheel (plan). The following are the good ones.

• stick to plan
• You can trade the M15 chart but no lower (Seiden)
• ensure you include the most extreme parts of levels 
• trade with the trend of the time frame you're on into longer term levels (you trade momentum not value)
• I have got better at managing risk, now I need to mange my entries. 
• when shooting stars/hammers fail it will usually be a full stop out, so very hard to reduce risk and might be better to wait for a re-attack instead of trading!
• Don't trade overtired.
• On time stops exit immediately after the third bar, it's had plenty of time an extra 5 mins aren't going to do much! 
•  Stick to Seiden's entry parameters
•  when at (many) tested level of demand or supply , you should look to fade it on a smaller timeframe. (seiden)
•  trading is about managing risk so trades should be measured by the following parameters: 1. ensuring that you are only risking x% of account (did). 2.  choosing low risk, high reward entries (didn't).2.  reducing risk (trail and time stops) in trade (did). 
• S&D is better drawn around some bars not one.
• lessons: 1. waiting for data to create moves that are then tradeable is useful and time efficient. 
•  I mustn't be scared of using limit orders to get into trades.
• lessons:  1. don't put so much weight on correlations, If you only have one true entry that's the only thing you can take!   
•  Don't be scared to trade re-attacks of levels!
•  Stop questioning the coach, start following the coach.

R+0.4: 1 Win

EU trade: Shorted downtrend at M15 supply,  exit at M15 demand

intro: just bonkers outside of trading at the mo. One trade around lunch time, saw this nice rally into fresh supply so took a short.

thoughts: Would have been nice to hold for second target, something I need to work on! Guess I could have continued trailing my stop or taken partial targets.

summary: Nice to be back on better form. Trading more on plan than I have been some of this month and seemed to be rewarded for it... but plan definitely needs more going over and ironing out.

lessons: stick to plan

Chasing Price

Monday and Tuesday and possibly last week  can be summed up by an underlying, leaning towards chasing price rather than waiting for it. This is likely due to my not having read my method for a long time while continuing to study Seiden articles which have got me a bit "method swappy".

Will likely take tomorrow off and clear head then come back.

R-0.2: 2 Losses

EJ trade: after new low close on M30 chart, drilled down to M5 to short pivot high,  exit time stop (R-0.2)

GU trade: when price returned to M30 supply, shorted pivot high, exit time stop (R+0.03)

Missed EU trade: because hadn't labelled extremes see below

intro: woke more tired than I thought I would annoyingly. Did prep keeping it simple, 2 levels on each time frame then waited for them to trigger.  First trade was on the EJ m5 chart experimenting with this sort of momentum play I've been spotting. Second trade more a classic trade of mine, short at supply on GU.

thoughts: NA

summary: had I traded 1:1 I would have got that, but I went for more and ended up break even.  

lessons: quite tired so going to take the following with a pinch of salt.  1.  ensure you're using the more extreme parts of levels as you missed a couple of good trades on the EU and EJ because you used more middling areas which then looked as if they had been tested several times. 2. trade with the trend of the time frame you're on into longer term levels (you trade momentum not value)

videos: